Anchoring and Adjustment With Spatial Uncertainty in Trajectory Prediction
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Abstract
Anchoring and adjustment is a prevalent heuristic, common in a range of settings and decisions. While it is well studied using values, there has been limited research on its function in visual-spatial domains. The present study explored the role of anchoring and adjustment with visual displays containing uncertainty information related to spatial prediction. Participants were given a graphical briefing to anchor them on accurate, inaccurate, or no information regarding the future behavior of an object (both its average behavior and the variance in behavior). They then made predictions of future object location and estimated its likelihood at multiple locations. Overall individuals utilized the anchoring information and were able to adjust to incorrect anchors. However, individuals vastly overestimated the likelihood the object would be at any given location, suggesting that they were not anchored on the variance.
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