Five-Year Forecasting Deaths Caused by Traffic Accidents in Fars Province of Iran

Yadollahi, Mahnaz; Gholamzadeh, Saeid · 2019 · OpenAlex-citations

DOI: 10.29252/beat-070406

archive: archived pipeline: cataloged verified

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Summary

This study addresses the high burden of traffic accident mortality in Iran, specifically within Fars Province, which ranks first in the country for traffic-related deaths. Motivated by the need to inform prevention policies through predictive modeling, the research aims to analyze demographic and temporal trends of traffic fatalities and forecast mortality rates through 2021. The authors note that while previous studies have documented increasing trends, no prior research had utilized time-based analysis to predict future trajectories for this region. The researchers conducted a cross-sectional study using census data from forensic organizations, analyzing 8,020 records of deaths resulting from vehicle accidents between March 2013 and March 2018. The study population included residents of Fars Province, with cases dying more than 30 days post-accident excluded to avoid confounding factors. Data collection focused on demographic characteristics, injury mechanisms, and spatial-temporal details. Statistical analysis employed T-tests and one-way ANOVA for comparisons, while a pseudo-regression spline model was used to forecast mortality trends up to 2021, incorporating variables such as location, year, and gender. The results indicated a mean mortality rate of 33.7 per 100,000 population. The forecasted values predicted a decline in overall traffic deaths by 2021. Demographically, the highest mortality occurred in the 16–25 age group (21.5%), with males accounting for 79.58% of deaths. Regarding vehicle type, car occupants represented the largest share of fatalities (52.36%), followed by motorcycle riders (25.57%) and pedestrians (19.93%). Notably, while deaths among car users and pedestrians decreased, motorcycle fatalities increased. Spatially, 67.18% of deaths occurred outside city limits, with a rising trend in suburban accidents contrasting with a decreasing trend in urban areas. Head injuries remained the leading cause of death (52.36%), though deaths from bleeding and multiple fractures increased over the study period. The authors conclude that current regulations achieve only a slow reduction in mortality, suggesting that stricter rules alone are insufficient. They advocate for "more intelligent standards," including targeted educational programs for young drivers, improved infrastructure for pedestrians, and specific safety measures for motorcycle riders, such as dedicated lanes and helmet promotion. The study highlights the need to address the shifting burden of accidents toward rural roads and younger demographics, emphasizing that effective policy must adapt to these changing patterns rather than relying solely on enforcement.

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• fatality injury trends
• comparative international