Improving the understanding of electric vehicle technology and policy diffusion across countries

Zimm, Caroline · 2020 · OpenAlex-citations

DOI: 10.1016/j.tranpol.2020.12.012

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Summary

This study investigates the factors driving the diffusion of electric vehicle (EV) policies and technology across nations, addressing the challenge of decarbonizing the transport sector. The research aims to explain why certain countries adopt EV support policies and achieve market "takeoff" earlier than others. By identifying the socioeconomic, political, and international mechanisms influencing this variation, the paper seeks to improve global transition scenarios and provide guidance for policymakers. The motivation stems from the critical need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and fossil fuel dependency, alongside the observation that significant discrepancies exist in EV uptake globally due to differing policy environments. The authors employ an event history analysis (specifically Cox regression and logistic regression) to examine the timing of EV takeoff across a sample of 60 countries between 2010 and 2017. EV takeoff is operationalized as the first year a country achieves a 1% market share in new car sales for EVs, marking the transition from the formative phase to the growth phase. The theoretical framework integrates multi-level perspectives, analyzing national characteristics (such as strategic objectives, population density, and urbanization), national capacities, and international diffusion mechanisms (including learning, proximity, and coercion). The study controls for various covariates to determine their relative impact on the probability of a country reaching this threshold. The findings identify specific national and international factors that significantly influence the likelihood and timing of EV adoption. The analysis validates that countries with high oil import dependence are more likely to pursue EV takeoff to reduce energy import reliance. Conversely, major oil producers show less inclination toward early adoption. Population characteristics also play a crucial role; higher urbanization rates and specific population densities correlate with faster uptake, reflecting the suitability of EVs for peri-urban and urban environments where charging infrastructure is more viable. International mechanisms, particularly learning from neighboring countries and coercion from supranational bodies, further accelerate policy diffusion. The study confirms that national strategic objectives and structural conditions are primary determinants of whether and when a country enters the EV growth phase. The significance of this research lies in its empirical validation of the drivers behind EV policy diffusion, offering a robust framework for predicting future adoption patterns. By clarifying the conditions that guarantee takeoff, the study helps refine global energy transition models and informs policymakers on effective strategies to overcome adoption barriers. It highlights that successful EV diffusion is not merely a technological issue but a complex outcome of political decisions, national characteristics, and international learning processes. This understanding is essential for designing policies that can accelerate the shift away from fossil fuels in the transport sector, contributing to broader climate and energy security goals.

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