An analysis of influential factors associated with rural crashes in a developing country: A case study of Iran

Sheykhfard, Abbas; Haghighi, Farshidreza; Abbasalipoor, Reza · 2022 · Crossref

DOI: 10.5604/01.3001.0015.9927

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Summary

This study addresses the critical issue of road safety in developing countries, specifically focusing on the factors influencing the severity of rural crashes in Iran. While global road traffic deaths remain high, with over 80% occurring in developing nations, comprehensive research on rural crash severity in these regions is scarce. Iran faces significant road safety challenges, with a fatality rate higher than the global average. The authors selected Mazandaran province as a case study due to its high incidence of rural road casualties, aiming to identify specific variables that increase the risk of injury and fatality compared to property damage. The researchers analyzed crash data from 2018 to 2021, sourced from the Iranian Legal Medicine Organization, comprising 2,047 rural crashes. The dependent variable was binary, classifying crashes as either resulting in financial damage or injury/fatality. Independent variables included driver specifications (age, gender, license type), crash specifications (type, cause), environmental conditions (weather, lighting), traffic conditions, and geometric road features. A binary logit model was employed to estimate the probability of injury-fatal crashes. To ensure model accuracy, the authors performed correlation analysis to remove collinear variables, such as vehicle type and median type, and utilized a backward elimination method in SPSS to refine the model by excluding insignificant parameters. The results indicated that the final model had a Nagelkerke R² of 0.615, demonstrating strong predictive power. The most significant factor increasing crash severity was the involvement of a non-fault motorcycle, which increased the odds of injury-fatal crashes by 23.3 times. Crashes involving pedestrians were the second most critical factor, increasing odds by 22.7 times. Fault motorcycles also significantly raised severity risks (8.4 times). Specific vehicle damage locations, such as the right rear door and roof, further amplified the likelihood of severe outcomes. Conversely, several factors reduced severity, including higher-level driver certifications (Base 1, 2, and 3), which significantly lowered the probability of fatal outcomes, suggesting that driving skills and knowledge are protective factors. Other mitigating factors included the presence of guard rails, straight road paths, and higher traffic volumes. The study concludes that driver and crash specifications are the primary determinants of rural crash severity in this context. The findings highlight the urgent need for targeted interventions, such as enforcing strict safety equipment regulations for motorcyclists, improving pedestrian infrastructure, and enhancing driver training programs. By addressing these specific influential factors, policymakers in Iran and similar developing countries can implement effective strategies to reduce the severity of rural road crashes and improve overall road safety.

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Topics

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• comparative international
• demographic disparities
• incidence prevalence
• urban rural setting
• pre crash contributing factors
• fatality injury trends

Information type

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• Empirical Findings: crash risk outcomes