RETRACTED: Road Traffic Deaths and Injuries Are Under-Reported in Ethiopia: A Capture-Recapture Method

Abegaz, Teferi; Berhane, Yemane; Worku, Alemayehu; Assrat, Abebe; Assefa, Abebayehu · 2014 · OpenAlex-citations

DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0103001

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Summary

This study addresses the significant under-reporting of road traffic injuries and fatalities in low- and middle-income countries, specifically Ethiopia. Official data from traffic police and hospital registries are often incomplete, particularly for non-fatal injuries and vulnerable road users such as pedestrians and cyclists. The authors aimed to estimate the true incidence of road traffic casualties and assess the completeness of existing reporting systems using a capture-recapture method. The research was conducted on the Addis Ababa–Hawassa highway, one of Ethiopia’s busiest routes, from June 2012 to May 2013. The study employed a two-sample capture-recapture design using data from two independent sources: traffic police records and hospital injury surveillance. Primary data were collected by trained accident investigators and emergency nurses using structured checklists. Cases were matched using four variables: victim name, sex, place, and time of the accident. The Chapman estimator was used to calculate the total number of casualties, adjusting for potential bias. Stratified analysis was performed to examine reporting completeness across gender, age, road user type, and collision type. Incidence rates were calculated per billion vehicle-kilometers traveled. The results revealed substantial under-reporting in both data sources. Police independently reported 224 deaths and 446 injuries per billion vehicle-kilometers, while hospitals reported 123 deaths and 1,046 injuries. Only 73 deaths and 248 injuries were captured by both sources. The capture-recapture model estimated the true incidence of deaths at 368–390 and injuries at 1,869–1,895 per billion vehicle-kilometers. Consequently, police records captured only 57.4%–60.9% of deaths and 23.5%–23.9% of injuries, whereas hospital records captured 31.5%–33.4% of deaths and 55.2%–56% of injuries. Specific groups, including females, younger victims, pedestrians, and cyclists/motorcyclists, were significantly under-reported by traffic police. The study concludes that neither police nor hospital data sources independently provide accurate coverage of road traffic casualties. Police records are more reliable for fatalities, while hospital data better capture non-fatal injuries. The findings highlight the necessity of strengthening both reporting systems to obtain accurate data for effective resource allocation and intervention planning. The authors also note that the estimates likely represent lower bounds due to positive dependency between sources, as police often require medical evidence for legal proceedings. This research underscores the utility of capture-recapture methods in assessing data completeness in settings with poor registry systems.

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• incidence prevalence
• fatality injury trends

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• Empirical Findings: crash risk outcomes