Seismic risk assessment of transportation networks for the impending Istanbul earthquake with GIS-based MCDM approach

Alemdar, Kadir Diler · 2025 · Crossref

DOI: 10.1007/s11069-025-07199-y

archive: archived pipeline: cataloged verified

Get this paper ↗ (DOI — opens at the source; we link to it, we don't host it)

Summary

This study addresses the critical need for seismic risk assessment of transportation networks in Istanbul, Turkey, given the high probability of a major impending earthquake. The research is motivated by the vital role road networks play in emergency response, evacuation, and post-disaster recovery, as well as the historical devastation caused by earthquakes in urban areas. The authors aim to identify high-risk road segments and provide a scientific framework for decision-makers to prioritize infrastructure resilience and emergency planning. The methodology employs a hybrid approach integrating Geographic Information Systems (GIS) with Multi-Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM) techniques. The study evaluates 24 criteria divided into two categories: 15 vulnerability criteria (e.g., building age, population density, distance to faults, health facility capacity) and 9 earthquake scenario criteria. Criterion weights were determined using the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP), incorporating expert opinions from academics and government officials. Spatial analysis was conducted within a GIS environment to generate earthquake risk maps. To rank and interpret the risk indices, the authors applied the Preference Ranking Organization Method for Enrichment Evaluations (PROMETHEE) and the VIseKriterijumsa Optimizacija I Kompromisno Resenje (VIKOR) methods. This combination allows for a multi-perspective evaluation of road network vulnerability and potential congestion under a simulated 7.5 Mw earthquake scenario. The results indicate that 9% of Istanbul’s surface area is classified as high earthquake risk, and one-fifth of the city’s roads fall into this high-risk category. Spatial analysis reveals that the highest risk zones are located in the southeast of the European side and the east of the Asian side. Specifically, the PROMETHEE and VIKOR rankings highlight that road networks in the districts of Bakırköy, Bahçelievler, and Küçükçekmece face significantly elevated risks. These findings suggest that these areas are particularly vulnerable to structural damage and subsequent road blockages, which could severely hinder emergency operations. The significance of this study lies in its novel integration of PROMETHEE with AHP and VIKOR for earthquake risk assessment, a combination not previously applied to transportation network analysis in the literature. By providing a detailed risk map and ranking of vulnerable road segments, the research offers a valuable tool for urban resilience planning. It enables local governments to identify critical infrastructure requiring pre-earthquake reinforcement and to develop targeted emergency response strategies. The study underscores the importance of maintaining functional transportation networks to minimize loss of life and economic damage, contributing a robust theoretical and practical framework for seismic risk management in densely populated urban centers.

Provenance

The full processing record for this entry. Every stage of this paper's journey through the pipeline is logged — what ran, with which tool and model, how many attempts it took, and when it last completed.

Summary generated by qwen3.6-27b-prismaquant on 2026-06-26; verification: verified.

Topics

Ranked by relevance to this paper. Hover a topic for its definition.

• induced exposure