Effects of Urban Characteristics on Traffic Accidents

Al-Masaeid, Hashem R.; AL-Tal, Raed S.; Mahmoud, Muna A. · 2025 · Crossref

DOI: 10.9744/ced.27.2.142-151

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Summary

This study investigates the impact of urban planning, road network, and topographic characteristics on traffic accident densities at the district level, using Amman, Jordan, as a case study. Motivated by the high socio-economic costs of road accidents in Jordan, where Amman accounts for approximately 65% of national traffic incidents, the research aims to fill a gap in previous studies that focused on intersection or arterial levels rather than broader urban districts. The objective was to develop statistical relationships between specific urban variables and accident rates to inform safety policies and city planning regulations. The methodology involved collecting cross-sectional data for the years 2009–2011 across Amman’s 22 urban districts. Accident data, including total, pedestrian, and vehicular incidents, were obtained from the Central Traffic Department. Urban characteristics, such as land-use percentages, population density, school density, and road network metrics (road density, intersection density, vehicle-kilometers of travel), were sourced from the Greater Amman Municipality and field surveys. Public transport accessibility was measured by the percentage of primary and collector streets covered by transit lines and the area served within a 400-meter buffer. Multivariate regression analyses were performed to model accident densities, discarding models with p-values greater than 0.05 or coefficients of determination below 0.70. The results identified several significant predictors of accident density. Increases in vehicle-kilometers of travel, road density, intersection density, and the percentage of mixed land-use were significantly associated with higher densities of all accident types. Mixed land-use was found to increase accidents due to varied trip purposes and speed differentials. Conversely, improved public transport accessibility significantly reduced accident rates; specifically, higher coverage of primary and collector streets by public transit lines lowered total and vehicular accident densities, while greater area served by public transport reduced pedestrian accident density. Pedestrian accident density was also significantly correlated with higher population density, school density, and location within the central business district. Topographic variables and residential land-use percentages did not show significant correlations at the predefined levels. The study concludes that urban design and infrastructure planning critically influence traffic safety. It recommends limiting mixed land-use to approximately 3% to reduce traffic conflicts and enhancing public transport coverage along major roads to decrease private vehicle reliance and pedestrian exposure. Additionally, the findings suggest locating schools away from primary and collector streets and implementing traffic calming measures, as well as improving sidewalk infrastructure in high-density and central business districts. These insights provide actionable guidelines for city planners and traffic engineers to mitigate accident risks through strategic urban development and transport policy.

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• urban rural setting
• incidence prevalence

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• Empirical Findings: crash risk outcomes