Optimal Route Determination to provide Relief Following an Earthquake using the Traffic Density Ratio (Case Study: Isfahan's Fire Stations)

Almasi, Seyed Ahmad; Khabiri, Mohammad Mehdi; Tafti, Mehdi Fallah; Akbarzadeh, Meisam · 2021 · Crossref

DOI: 10.26552/com.c.2021.1.f20-f32

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Summary

This study addresses the critical need for efficient emergency response routing in urban areas following seismic events, specifically focusing on the city of Isfahan, Iran. The research is motivated by the high casualty rates associated with earthquakes and the often-overlooked vulnerability of transportation networks, which are essential for delivering relief and evacuating residents. The authors aim to determine optimal routes for relief vehicles by integrating seismic vulnerability zoning with traffic flow analysis, a combined approach they argue is more effective than using either method in isolation. The methodology employs a hypothetical magnitude 5 earthquake centered in Isfahan to simulate post-disaster conditions. The researchers utilized ArcGIS to generate a seismic vulnerability map based on criteria such as building type, age, density, land use, and distance from faults, weighted using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). This vulnerability data was used to calculate a "serviceability" index for each road link, where lower serviceability indicates higher risk of blockage due to building collapse. These serviceability values were then integrated into TransCad software to model traffic flow and calculate critical travel times. The model assumes that links with near-zero serviceability are blocked, forcing traffic redistribution. The study analyzed 794 network links and 94 traffic regions within Isfahan’s central district, which contains the highest population density and majority of relief centers. The results identified significant disparities in network resilience. Of the 94 traffic regions, 7 were classified as very low risk (safe), while 10 were categorized as very high risk. Regarding the road network, 32 out of 794 links were predicted to have a very undesirable status, effectively becoming blocked or severely congested. The analysis revealed that streets in the northern and central parts of the study area were more vulnerable than those in the south, largely due to older buildings and narrower passageways. The model successfully calculated critical travel times by adjusting for reduced link serviceability, demonstrating that travel costs increase significantly as serviceability decreases. Specific link analyses showed that some links had failure probabilities exceeding 90%, rendering them unusable for relief operations. The significance of this study lies in its innovative integration of seismic zoning and traffic simulation to identify optimal relief routes. By pinpointing vulnerable links and safe zones, the research provides a framework for crisis management that can help emergency planners anticipate network disruptions. The findings highlight the importance of considering building vulnerability adjacent to roads when planning evacuation and relief strategies. This approach offers a practical tool for improving the reliability of transportation networks during disasters, potentially reducing response times and saving lives in high-risk urban environments like Isfahan.

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