TOLLING MOTORWAYS IN THE TIME OF ECONOMIC DOWNTURN: THE CASE OF PORTUGAL

Amorim, Marco; Lobo, António; Couto, António · 2019 · Crossref

DOI: 10.3846/transport.2019.8581

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Summary

This study addresses the challenge of optimizing Electronic Toll Collection (ETC) implementation on motorways during periods of economic downturn, using Portugal’s former free-of-charge motorways (SCUTs) as a case study. Motivated by the European debt crisis, which forced the Portuguese government to impose tolls on previously free roads to cover public expenditure, the research seeks to maximize toll revenue while accounting for driver behavior. The authors developed a combined methodological tool consisting of a binary choice model to predict driver decisions and an optimization model to determine the optimal location and pricing of toll gantries. The methodology employs a two-step approach. First, a binary logistic regression model estimates the probability of drivers choosing a tolled motorway segment versus a free, slower alternative route. This model utilizes data from eight former SCUTs, incorporating variables such as toll price, travel time and distance differences, GDP growth, fuel prices, and contextual factors like urban proximity. Second, an optimization model uses these probabilities to maximize revenue by selecting gantry locations and price categories. The optimization accounts for traffic loss due to tolling and the presence of consecutive tolled segments. The case study focuses on a specific 182.4 km motorway with 21 segments, using Average Daily Traffic data and travel times derived from Google Maps. The optimization was performed using IBM ILOG CPLEX, testing various GDP growth scenarios and price constraints. The results demonstrate that optimal ETC configurations vary significantly with macroeconomic conditions. In scenarios of negative GDP growth, maximizing revenue requires lower toll prices per kilometer and selective tolling rather than universal coverage. Specifically, in a –3% GDP growth scenario, three segments should remain untolled, while others with high time-saving advantages for users are tolled at maximum prices. The study finds that the number of tolled segments and the price per kilometer induce substantial variations in both revenue and traffic volume. The optimization tool successfully identifies diversified solutions that balance revenue generation with traffic retention, proving effective under financial constraints. The significance of this research lies in providing a practical, data-driven tool for policymakers and concessionaires to implement ETC systems efficiently. By integrating driver choice behavior with revenue optimization, the methodology assists in designing tolling strategies that are resilient to economic fluctuations. The authors conclude that the tool is applicable to other countries and contexts, offering a framework for managing motorway tolling under diverse economic conditions, particularly when rapid implementation is required without the infrastructure costs of traditional toll plazas.

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