Autonomous vehicles: challenges, opportunities, and future implications for transportation policies

Bagloee, Saeed Asadi; Tavana, Madjid; Asadi, Mohsen; Oliver, Tracey · 2016 · OpenAlex-citations

DOI: 10.1007/s40534-016-0117-3

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Summary

This 2016 review paper by Bagloee et al. examines the challenges, opportunities, and policy implications of emerging autonomous vehicle (AV) technologies. Motivated by rapid advancements in robotics and communication, the authors aim to provide a comprehensive overview for scholars, policymakers, and planners. The study addresses the potential of AVs to reduce crashes, energy consumption, and congestion while increasing accessibility for low-income households and persons with mobility issues. The authors argue that AVs represent a multidisciplinary technology intersecting transportation science, engineering, law, and ethics, necessitating a broad analysis of their societal impact. The methodology consists of a systematic literature review of over 118 references published primarily in the preceding five years. The authors categorize AV automation into five levels, from no automation to full self-driving, and analyze the operational "sense-plan-act" framework reliant on sensors like radar, Lidar, and cameras. A key component of the review is the integration of "connected vehicle" technology, which enables real-time communication between vehicles, infrastructure, and authorities. The authors also propose a conceptual navigation model based on system optimality, suggesting that centrally dispatched fleets of connected AVs could minimize total travel time and optimize traffic flow. The findings highlight significant potential benefits alongside complex challenges. On the positive side, AVs are expected to drastically reduce traffic accidents, as human error causes over 90% of crashes. The technology may also alleviate congestion through smoother driving, platooning, and reservation-based intersection management, potentially increasing road capacity by up to five times. Economic benefits include lower transportation costs, with fleet-managed AVs estimated to cost $0.42–$0.49 per occupied mile, making them competitive with private ownership. Additionally, AVs could free up urban land currently used for parking (estimated at 31% of district areas) and improve fuel efficiency through eco-driving and reduced idle time. However, the authors note the "rebound effect," where increased accessibility and lower costs may induce additional vehicle-kilometers traveled (VKT), potentially offsetting congestion and environmental gains. The significance of this work lies in its holistic assessment of AVs as a transformative force in transportation policy. The authors conclude that while AVs offer substantial societal value, their implementation requires careful management of induced demand through mechanisms like congestion pricing. They emphasize that the success of AVs depends not only on vehicle automation but also on connected infrastructure and big data analytics. The paper serves as a foundational resource for understanding the trade-offs between efficiency, safety, and land use, urging stakeholders to prepare for a future where AVs may constitute a majority of vehicle sales and travel by 2040.

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• Synthesis & Review: research agenda