Participatory Simulation Framework for Agent-Based Model Validation in Air Traffic Management

Roungas, Bill; Álvarez, Lucía Herrero; Meijer, Sebastiaan · 2022 · Crossref

DOI: 10.1007/978-3-031-09959-5_24

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Summary

This paper addresses the challenge of validating an agent-based model (ABM) designed to simulate the technology deployment cycle in European Air Traffic Management (ATM). The ATM system faces increasing pressure from growing traffic and new entrants like drones, yet technological modernization has historically been slow due to safety requirements, coordination complexities, and market structures. To identify barriers to technology adoption and recommend policy measures, the authors developed an ABM that incorporates stakeholder heterogeneity, behavioral economics, and long-term system dynamics. The primary contribution of this work is a proposed participatory simulation framework intended to validate this ABM at both the individual agent level and the aggregated system level, thereby enhancing the model’s credibility for real-world decision-making. The proposed validation framework consists of two complementary components: behavioral analysis and participatory simulations. The behavioral analysis validates the conceptual model by conducting semi-structured interviews with ATM experts. These interviews assess the validity of the model’s assumptions, gather data on experts’ willingness to adopt specific technologies, and capture perceptions of how other stakeholders might behave. The second component, participatory simulations, validates the operational model using an online game interface that allows human participants to interact with the ABM. This simulation employs two distinct gameplay modes: "playing in the model," where participants assume the role of specific agents to validate individual behavior, and "playing with the model," where participants tweak system parameters to validate aggregated system dynamics. The framework supports both single-player and multi-player modes, though the authors emphasize single-player modes to overcome logistical challenges in coordinating busy professionals and to facilitate clearer analysis of parameter effects. The paper outlines the theoretical structure for this validation rather than presenting empirical results, as the framework was in the implementation phase at the time of writing. The authors argue that combining formal, data-driven validation methods with informal, human-driven participatory methods offers a holistic approach. Formal methods provide hard evidence but are resource-intensive and limited to known criteria, whereas informal methods allow for asynchronous, iterative validation and can uncover unanticipated relationships. By integrating these approaches, the framework aims to provide evidence for validation across different levels of abstraction. The significance of this work lies in its comprehensive approach to ABM validation in a complex, safety-critical domain. By embedding behavioral economics and stakeholder interactions into the validation process, the framework moves beyond traditional quantitative metrics to capture the social and political dimensions of technology adoption. The authors conclude that this participatory simulation framework serves as a foundational step for validating ABMs not only in ATM but potentially in other fields requiring the assessment of complex innovation processes and policy impacts.

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• simulator validity fidelity