MODELLING A PASSENGER CAR SYSTEM BASED ON THE PRINCIPLES OF SUSTAINABLE MOBILITY IN VILNIUS CITY

Grigonis, Vytautas; Burinskienė, Marija; Paliulis, Gražvydas; Ušpalytė-Vitkūnienė, Rasa; Dumbliauskas, Vytautas; Barauskas, Andrius · 2014 · OpenAlex-citations

DOI: 10.3846/16484142.2014.953998

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Summary

This study addresses the deteriorating traffic conditions in Vilnius City, driven by increasing motorization and urbanization, by modeling the impact of sustainable mobility measures on the passenger car system. The research aims to assess how the introduction of new public transport modes—specifically Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) and light tram lines—alongside infrastructure developments outlined in the City’s Master Plan, affects traffic flows and modal choice during the morning peak hour in 2025. The motivation stems from the need to reduce car dependency and improve transportation diversity through Mobility Management strategies. The authors utilized macro-modeling techniques using PTV Visum software, building upon the existing VIDAS database originally created for EMME/2. The model was calibrated using field measurements of traffic flows from 2010–2011 and verified with a coefficient of determination ($R^2$) of 0.77. Four scenarios were developed for the year 2025: a baseline scenario with no new public transport development (Scenario 0), and three alternative scenarios incorporating new tram and BRT routes. These alternatives varied by infrastructure adjustments: Scenario I involved no street reconstruction; Scenario II included street widening; and Scenario III combined street reconstruction with one-way traffic organization in the city center. All scenarios assumed a 15% decrease in car trips due to modal shift toward public transport. The results indicate that implementing new public transport modes significantly reduces private vehicle usage. In Scenario 0, passenger car demand remained high at 72,017 vehicles per hour, with public transport accounting for only 38% of travels. In contrast, the alternative scenarios reduced car demand to 61,382 vehicles per hour, increasing the public transport share to 47%. Qualitative analysis revealed that Scenario II (tram/BRT with street reconstruction) yielded the best performance, offering the shortest average travel time (18.91 minutes) and highest average speed (38.16 km/h). Compared to the baseline, Scenario II reduced total travel time by 5,932 hours per peak period and decreased the total hourly run of vehicles by over 130,000 km. The study concludes that developing a robust public transport network creates real preconditions for a sustainable transport system in Vilnius. By prioritizing fast public transport modes and integrating them with strategic infrastructure changes, the city can effectively reduce car dependency, lower congestion, and improve overall travel efficiency. The findings support the Master Plan’s vision, demonstrating that combined "soft" and "hard" mobility management measures are essential for achieving sustainable urban mobility goals.

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