Hands Off the Wheel: The Role of Law in the Coming Extinction of Human-Driven Vehicles

Hresko Pearl, Tracy · 2019 · Crossref

DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3400945

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Summary

This paper examines the role of law in the transition from human-driven to fully autonomous vehicles, arguing that legal scholars often overestimate the impact of legislation on technology-driven societal change. Drawing a historical parallel to the early 20th-century shift from horse-drawn carriages to automobiles, the author contends that while public resistance and legal responses are inevitable during such transitions, they are not the primary drivers of adoption. Instead, economic incentives, changes in convenience, and evolving consumer preferences play a far more significant role in achieving lasting societal transformation. The author begins by highlighting the current public skepticism toward autonomous vehicles, citing incidents of vandalism against Waymo test vehicles in Arizona and polling data indicating that a majority of Americans prefer to drive themselves. This resistance mirrors the hostility faced by early automobiles, which were attacked by mobs and viewed as dangerous nuisances. Despite this initial backlash, automobiles rapidly replaced horses due to their superior efficiency and convenience, a process that took only about a decade in urban areas. The paper notes that the current regulatory landscape for autonomous vehicles is fragmented and hasty, with states rushing to pass inconsistent laws before the technology is fully mature, similar to the patchwork of motor vehicle laws enacted in the early 1900s. The analysis distinguishes between the legal and non-legal factors influencing technological adoption. While statutory bans, ordinances, and litigation have historically played a role in managing new technologies, the author argues they are secondary to market forces. The transition to autonomous vehicles is driven by their potential to drastically reduce accidents, increase road capacity, improve fuel efficiency, and provide mobility for the elderly and disabled. Furthermore, the phased development of autonomy, categorized by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration into six levels, suggests a gradual integration rather than an abrupt shift. The author predicts that as these non-legal benefits become apparent and consumer preferences shift, the need for proactive, heavy-handed regulation will diminish. Ultimately, the paper concludes that the extinction of human-driven vehicles will be driven primarily by economic and social factors rather than legal mandates. The author urges law and technology scholars to reflect on the limited relevance of law during periods of dynamic social change, suggesting that market mechanisms and consumer behavior will resolve many of the issues currently perceived as requiring legislative intervention. This perspective offers a more optimistic view of the transition, implying that the societal shift toward autonomous vehicles will occur naturally as the technology proves its safety and utility, much like the automobile did over a century ago.

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