Modeling pedestrian crossing speed profiles considering speed change behavior for the safety assessment of signalized intersections

Iryo-Asano, Miho; Alhajyaseen, Wael K.M. · 2017 · Crossref

DOI: 10.1016/j.aap.2017.08.028

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Summary

This study addresses the critical issue of pedestrian safety at signalized intersections, specifically focusing on the unpredictable nature of pedestrian speed changes that can lead to conflicts with vehicles. While existing research often assumes constant pedestrian speeds or analyzes average crossing times, this paper argues that sudden, unanticipated acceleration or deceleration events are significant contributors to hazardous situations. The authors aim to develop a quantitative model that captures these instantaneous behavioral changes to improve safety assessments and inform countermeasures. The methodology relies on empirical data collected from five crosswalks at three intersections in Nagoya City, Japan, under uncongested conditions to isolate individual behavior from crowd interactions. Pedestrian positions were tracked manually using video image processing software at 0.5-second intervals. The researchers modeled pedestrian speed profiles as stepwise functions, extracting speed change events where the absolute speed difference exceeded 0.5 m/s. The modeling framework consists of two sub-models: a discrete choice model to predict the probability of accelerating, decelerating, or maintaining speed, and regression or normal distribution models to estimate the magnitude of these speed changes. Key explanatory variables included the necessary walking speed to finish crossing before the signal change, current speed, and the presence of turning vehicles in the conflict area. Separate models were developed for the periods before and after the onset of the pedestrian flashing green (PFG) signal. The results indicate that pedestrian behavior is heavily influenced by signal timing and conflict zones. Before the PFG onset, pedestrians adjust their speed to match the necessary speed to complete crossing, with lower probabilities of speed changes in conflict areas due to perceived right-of-way. After the PFG onset, the probability of speed changes increases significantly. Pedestrians in conflict areas during this phase tend to accelerate to clear the hazardous zone, while those who had previously accelerated often decelerate once they feel secure. The model successfully reproduced realistic pedestrian maneuvers, demonstrating that it represents pedestrian travel time distributions more accurately than traditional constant-speed models. The significance of this work lies in its ability to provide a reliable tool for assessing pedestrian-vehicle conflicts by accounting for instantaneous behavioral changes rather than just average speeds. This improved modeling capability supports the development of better intersection designs, signal control strategies, and safety information systems. Furthermore, the findings have implications for autonomous vehicle technology, offering a basis for predicting pedestrian maneuvers to avoid severe conflicts. By quantifying the impact of signal indications and vehicle interactions on pedestrian speed profiles, the study offers a more nuanced understanding of intersection safety dynamics.

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Topics

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• pedestrian behavior perception
• rail grade crossings