A taxonomy of prospection: Introducing an organizational framework for future-oriented cognition

Szpunar, Karl K.; Spreng, R. Nathan; Schacter, Daniel L. · 2014 · OpenAlex-citations

DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1417144111

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Summary

This perspective article addresses the lack of a unified organizational framework for prospection, defined as the ability to represent future events. While prospection encompasses diverse cognitive processes such as affective forecasting, prospective memory, and episodic simulation, existing literature often treats these forms in isolation, obscuring their interrelations. The authors propose a taxonomy to clarify the landscape of future-oriented cognition, distinguishing between different modes of thinking and the types of knowledge that support them. The proposed framework organizes prospection along two primary dimensions. The first dimension identifies four modes of future thinking: simulation (constructing detailed mental representations), prediction (estimating the likelihood or emotional reaction to outcomes), intention (setting goals), and planning (identifying steps to achieve goals). The second dimension categorizes these modes based on their reliance on episodic memory (specific autobiographical events) versus semantic memory (general world knowledge). The authors conceptualize the episodic–semantic distinction as a continuum rather than a binary category, acknowledging hybrid forms that draw on both personal and general knowledge. The paper reviews empirical evidence for each mode, utilizing examples such as a hypothetical executive preparing for a meeting to illustrate how these cognitive processes manifest in everyday life. Key findings highlight the distinct yet interconnected nature of these modes. Episodic simulation is closely linked to episodic memory, sharing neural networks involving the hippocampus, whereas semantic simulation relies on general knowledge and shows dissociable neural signatures. Research on prediction indicates that people often rely on imperfect episodic simulations to forecast emotional reactions, leading to systematic errors in affective forecasting. Regarding intention and planning, the authors note that while simulation is not inherently action-oriented, it facilitates intention formation and planning. For instance, repeated simulation of future events increases the perceived likelihood of their occurrence, thereby influencing intention and planning behaviors. The framework also suggests that deficits in episodic memory often impair episodic simulation and prediction, though semantic forms of these processes may remain intact. The significance of this taxonomy lies in its potential to stimulate cross-disciplinary research by providing a common language for disparate fields studying future thinking. By delineating how simulation, prediction, intention, and planning interact and rely on different memory systems, the framework offers new avenues for investigating disorders of future thinking, such as those seen in amnesia or depression. It also highlights the need for methodological advancements to study the interactions between these modes, particularly how hybrid forms of cognition operate. Ultimately, this organizational structure aims to deepen the understanding of how humans adaptively navigate future possibilities through complex cognitive operations.

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