Unintended Consequences of Automobility – Will Autonomous Vehicles be any Different?

Kofi Adanu, Emmanuel · 2019 · Crossref

DOI: 10.31031/aaoa.2019.03.000583

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Summary

This opinion piece examines the historical trajectory of automobility to evaluate whether Autonomous Vehicles (AVs) will replicate the unintended negative consequences associated with traditional automobile dependency. The authors argue that mobility systems are deeply embedded in sociocultural and economic structures, noting that pre-20th-century cities were characterized by high density, mixed land use, and walkability. The advent of the automobile fundamentally reorganized urban form, prioritizing vehicle infrastructure over pedestrian needs and fostering "auto-dependency." This shift separated residential areas from economic centers, weakened community cohesion, and created spatially stretched lifestyles. The paper posits that while AVs promise significant advancements in safety and accessibility, they risk perpetuating or exacerbating these structural issues unless carefully managed. The analysis relies on a review of existing literature regarding urban planning, transport sociology, and emerging AV technologies. The authors synthesize historical data on urban evolution with contemporary projections on AV deployment, citing sources such as Newman and Kenworthy on automobile dependence and Urry on the concept of automobility. The discussion contrasts the potential benefits of AVs—such as the elimination of human-error-related crashes (attributed to 90% of road fatalities) and increased mobility for the elderly or disabled—against potential risks. The authors consider scenarios involving both privately owned AVs and shared "Mobility as a Service" (MaaS) models, referencing industry reports from McKinsey & Company and the Boston Consulting Group to assess likely behavioral shifts. Key findings suggest that AVs may lead to increased urban sprawl and traffic congestion if ease of use encourages higher car ownership and usage. The authors note that shared AVs may be unattractive for multi-stop trips due to social discomfort, potentially driving private ownership. Conversely, AVs could transform retail by enabling automated goods delivery, reducing the need for shopping trips. Safety implications are dual-edged: while AVs could eradicate fatalities caused by human error, they introduce new vulnerabilities, including system glitches, cyber threats, and the potential for weaponization by terror groups for vehicle-ramming attacks. The paper highlights that current semi-autonomous systems already mitigate some driver limitations, but full automation remains years away, with commercial deployment expected between 2035 and 2050. The significance of this work lies in its warning that AVs will likely produce unforeseen problems similar to those caused by traditional automobiles. The authors conclude that without major infrastructural changes and policy interventions, AVs may reinforce auto-dependency rather than resolve it. The paper emphasizes the need to consider these unintended consequences—ranging from security threats to urban sprawl—before full deployment, advocating for a balanced approach that avoids restricting individual freedoms while mitigating systemic risks. Ultimately, the authors assert that AVs will profoundly alter how people live, work, and travel, necessitating proactive planning to ensure these changes support sustainable urban development rather than replicating past failures.

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