The effects of raising and lowering the minimum legal drinking age in Virginia.

Lynn, Cheryl · 1984 · ROSA P / Virginia Transportation Research Council (VTRC)

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Summary

This 1984 report by Cheryl Lynn updates previous analyses on the impact of Virginia’s changes to the minimum legal drinking age (MLDA). The study addresses the research question of how lowering the MLDA to 18 in 1974 and subsequently raising the age for off-premise beer sales to 19 in 1981 affected alcohol-related motor vehicle crashes among young drivers. The motivation stems from the need to evaluate the safety implications of these legislative shifts using current crash data, alongside a review of similar studies in other states. The methodology involves a statistical analysis of Virginia vehicle accident data from 1969 to 1982, categorized by age groups: under 16, 16–19, 20–24, and 25 and older. The author compares actual crash numbers and percentages against projected trends based on pre-legislative-change data (1969–1973) and immediate post-lowering trends (1975–1980). Additionally, the study calculates accident rates per licensed driver to control for population changes. The report also synthesizes findings from external studies in Maine, Illinois, and Michigan, as well as Insurance Institute for Highway Safety data, to contextualize Virginia’s experience. The findings indicate that lowering the drinking age to 18 significantly increased alcohol-related crashes for persons under 21. From 1975 to 1981, alcohol-related crashes for 16–19 year olds increased by 188%, and for those under 16 by 574%, far exceeding historical projections. In contrast, non-alcohol-related crashes for these groups decreased or remained stable, isolating alcohol availability as the primary driver of the increase. Adults (25+) showed no significant deviation from expected trends. However, after the MLDA for off-premise beer was raised to 19 in 1981, alcohol-related crashes for persons under 20 dropped significantly in 1982, falling below projected levels. The percentage of crashes involving alcohol for young drivers also reversed its upward trend, decreasing markedly after the 1981 legislative change. The study concludes that lowering the legal drinking age exacerbated accident problems for young drivers, while raising it provided a measurable protective effect. The author recommends that Virginia adopt a more protective stance by increasing the minimum legal drinking age to 21 for all alcohol purchases. The report supports the broader national trend observed in other states, where raising the MLDA correlates with reduced fatal and alcohol-related crashes among young drivers.

Key finding

Raising the legal drinking age for off-premise beer sales to 19 in 1981 significantly reduced the percentage and number of alcohol-related crashes for drivers under 19 compared to previous trends.

Methodology

naturalistic

Provenance

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