Neurophysiological insights into sequential decision-making: exploring the secretary problem through ERPs and TBR dynamics

Mizrahi, Dor; Laufer, Ilan; Zuckerman, Inon · 2024 · Crossref

DOI: 10.1186/s40359-024-01750-5

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Summary

This study investigates the neurophysiological mechanisms underlying sequential decision-making under uncertainty, specifically using the "secretary problem" as a model for optimal stopping theory. The research addresses a gap in neuroscientific literature regarding decision-making outside of visual search contexts. By examining Event-Related Potentials (ERPs) and Theta to Beta Ratio (TBR) dynamics, the authors aim to elucidate how individuals allocate attention, engage in cognitive evaluation, and manage stress while navigating irreversible choices with incomplete information. The experimental design involved 27 engineering students who performed six blocks of a secretary problem task, each consisting of 20 sequential monetary offers. Participants were instructed to accept or reject offers to maximize earnings, with compensation tied to performance. Electroencephalography (EEG) data were recorded at 512 Hz, focusing on frontal and prefrontal electrodes. The analysis targeted the P200 component (associated with attentional engagement) and the P400 component (linked to cognitive evaluation) at three critical stages: the first, middle, and final offers. Additionally, TBR was computed using Discrete Wavelet Transform to assess stress and cognitive load throughout the decision sequence. Results revealed distinct neurophysiological patterns corresponding to task progression. The P200 amplitude declined from the initial to the middle offers, indicating a reduction in attentional focus as participants became accustomed to the task, before rising again at the final offer, signaling renewed cognitive engagement. Conversely, the P400 amplitude peaked at the middle offer, suggesting maximal cognitive evaluation during the intermediate phase, and tapered off at the final decision. TBR dynamics, best modeled by a third-order polynomial, showed an initial low phase followed by an increase near the optimal stopping point, reflecting heightened stress and executive control demands. Statistical analysis confirmed significant interactions between offer position and ERP components, validating these shifting cognitive strategies. The findings demonstrate that sequential decision-making involves a dynamic interplay of attention, evaluation, and stress regulation. The attenuation of P200 during the middle phase suggests habituation, while the P400 peak indicates intensive information integration. The rise in TBR near the decision threshold aligns with the Adaptive Gain Model, where increased stress may serve as an adaptive mechanism to balance sensory input and urgency. These insights contribute to the understanding of high-stakes decision-making and suggest that neurophysiological markers can inform the development of cognitive frameworks for real-world applications involving uncertainty and sequential choices.

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