Patterns, drivers, and trends of urban cooling demand across global cities.

Mondal, N; Anand, P; Khan, A; Georgescu, M; Niyogi, D; Santamouris, M · 2026 · PubMed Central

DOI: 10.1038/s41467-026-74157-y

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Summary

This study addresses the underexplored relationship between urban volumetric growth and urban cooling demand (UCD), aiming to quantify how different city expansion patterns influence thermal energy needs. While urbanization is known to drive warming, the specific impacts of horizontal expansion, vertical densification, and infilling on UCD remain poorly understood. The authors hypothesize that volumetric growth trajectories, particularly vertical expansion, significantly impact UCD, especially in rapidly developing cities. To test this, the researchers analyzed 88 Indian and 52 global cities from 2003 to 2023, classifying them into four typologies based on shared volumetric growth characteristics. The methodology leveraged high-resolution satellite and reanalysis datasets (ERA5-and), harmonized to a ~1 km spatial resolution, to derive indicators of lateral spread, vertical development, built-ground coverage, and population density. UCD was proxied using humidity-weighted Cooling Degree Days (CDD-hum), calculated with base temperatures of 22°C and 28°C for Indian cities and 20°C for global cities. The study employed ordinary least squares regression to assess trends and Pearson/Spearman correlations to evaluate the relationship between volumetric indicators and UCD trajectories. Results reveal a divergence in UCD trajectories driven by growth typologies. Approximately 90% of Indian cities experienced substantial cooling demand, with mean CDD-hum of 1963 ± 78.46 °C-year (22°C base). Cities undergoing extensive, irregular expansion (Type-I) exhibited the fastest relative increases in UCD, while medium-sized cities sustained the highest absolute demand. Compact urban forms showed moderated trends, indicating structural thermal advantages. Volumetric growth, particularly vertical development and densification, was strongly associated with UCD and demonstrated substantial explanatory power after accounting for climate. In global cities, European locations showed the highest relative rise in CDD-hum (~2.5–5%), whereas US inland cities had higher absolute UCD than coastal counterparts. Type-I cities globally exhibited substantially higher UCD, attributed to marked lateral spread. The findings conclude that urban form is a critical factor in climate-responsive and energy-efficient urban transitions. The study highlights that vertical expansion and volumetric densification have a stronger impact on UCD than horizontal expansion in rapidly developing contexts. This provides a foundation for future regional and global assessments, offering insights for adaptation strategies tailored to diverse urban growth trajectories, particularly in the Global South where cooling demand is projected to rise significantly.

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