Central government role in road infrastructure development and economic growth in the form of future study: the case of Indonesia

Nawir, Daud; Bakri, Muhammad Djaya; Syarif, Iif Ahmad · 2023 · Crossref

DOI: 10.1186/s40410-022-00188-9

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Summary

This study investigates the role of the central government in road infrastructure development and its impact on economic growth in Indonesia, utilizing a future-oriented scenario-based planning approach. The research is motivated by Indonesia’s inadequate transportation infrastructure, which hinders economic prosperity despite the country’s abundant natural resources. While road infrastructure is globally recognized as a key asset for reducing poverty and enhancing market access, Indonesia faces challenges such as low economic growth, hyperinflation, and severe traffic congestion. The study aims to identify key drivers of infrastructure development and determine the most effective strategic planning scenarios for the central government to support national economic growth. The methodology employs a qualitative cross-impact analysis combined with the MICMAC (Matrice d’Impacts Croisés Multiplication Appliquée à un Classement) technique and Scenario Wizard software. Data were collected through literature reviews and expert opinions from 29 participants, including management experts, academicians, and professionals, selected via purposive sampling. The experts evaluated 24 variables categorized into six macro-indicators: socio-cultural, economic, political/organizational, laws/regulations, technology/innovation, and infrastructure/spatial. These variables were analyzed using a Matrix of Direct Influence (MDI) to determine relationships and dependencies. The MICMAC analysis classified variables into key, input, dependent, clustered, and excluded constructs based on their driving and dependence power. Subsequently, the Cross-impact Balance (CIB) method was used to generate and assess probable future scenarios. The results identified nine key variables critical for Indonesian road infrastructure development: community participation, development of action plans, transportation management, master planning, safety and security, investments in technology, maintaining a comprehensive transportation database, addressing land-use conflicts, and financial facilities. The analysis generated 5,832 probable scenarios, of which four demonstrated strong consistency. Scenario 1 was identified as the most ideal and stable driving scenario. It emphasizes concentrating efforts on planning road infrastructure in large cities and utilizing smart, modern technology. This scenario highlights that strategic planning in populous urban areas facilitates smoother functioning for individuals and businesses, thereby supporting economic growth. Other variables, such as establishing commissions or diesel regulations, were found to have minimal impact. The study concludes that strategic planning by the central government, particularly focusing on key drivers like master planning and technological investment in major cities, is essential for enhancing road infrastructure and fostering economic growth in Indonesia. By identifying these stable and influential factors, the research provides a framework for policymakers to prioritize interventions. The findings contribute to the existing literature by presenting a structured set of constructs for infrastructure development and demonstrating the utility of scenario-based planning in addressing complex socio-economic challenges in emerging economies.

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