Review of the FAA 1982 National Airspace System plan

NHTSA · 1982 · ROSA P / United States. Government Printing Office

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Summary

This report, produced by the Office of Technology Assessment (OTA) in 1982, reviews the Federal Aviation Administration’s (FAA) National Airspace System (NAS) Plan. Commissioned by the House Committee on Appropriations, the review evaluates the plan’s adequacy as a long-range modernization strategy and the appropriateness of the specific technologies selected. The OTA employed a consultative methodology, engaging approximately 60 external experts from the aviation community, computer science, and communications fields through working groups and conferences. The analysis also incorporated data from the Congressional Budget Office regarding traffic forecasts and funding. The OTA found that while the NAS Plan represents a significant step forward in defining system goals, it suffers from critical structural and strategic flaws. A primary concern is the plan’s disproportionate focus on en route air traffic control (ATC) technology while neglecting airport capacity, which the OTA identifies as the principal constraint on aviation growth. The plan prioritizes en route improvements for the late 1980s, despite terminal area capacity enhancements not being scheduled until the early 1990s, creating a mismatch where traffic is moved expeditiously only to encounter delays at congested hubs. Furthermore, the OTA criticized the plan for lacking clear priorities, dependencies among program elements, and contingency plans for schedule slippage or budget constraints. Specific technological and forecasting issues were highlighted. The OTA concluded that FAA’s historical traffic forecasts have consistently overestimated growth, potentially leading to unnecessary acceleration of implementation schedules and the rejection of less costly technological alternatives. Regarding en route computer replacement, the OTA questioned the FAA’s decision to "rehost" existing software on new hardware across all 20 centers, arguing that this approach might limit future design options and that upgrading only the 10 centers facing immediate capacity issues would be more prudent. Concerns were also raised regarding the lack of supporting analysis for projected automation cost savings, potential human factors issues in highly automated systems, and the exclusion of satellite technology due to timing rather than technical readiness. The report concludes that the NAS Plan’s funding strategy, which relies on user fees to recover 85% of the budget, perpetuates a cross-subsidy from general aviation to commercial carriers and may dampen aviation growth, thereby reducing expected revenues. The OTA recommends that FAA adopt a more flexible implementation schedule, integrate airport and airspace procedure planning with ATC technology upgrades, and reexamine technological options in light of more realistic growth forecasts. The findings suggest that without these adjustments, the plan risks imposing excessive costs and technical constraints without adequately addressing the system’s most significant bottleneck: airport capacity.

Key finding

Lack of airport capacity, not air traffic control technology, is the principal constraint on the growth of aviation, yet the NAS Plan concentrates primarily on modernizing en route systems.

Methodology

review

Provenance

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