Assessment of Autonomous Vehicle Sharing for Evacuation and Disaster Relief

Padmanabhan, Bhavya; Shirley, Thomas; Murray-Tuite, Pamela; Huynh, Nathan; Comert, Gurcan; Shen, Jiayun; Tadesse, Hiwot; Wofford, Treylon · 2021 · ROSA P / Center for Connected Multimodal Mobility, Clemson University

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Summary

This study investigates the feasibility of utilizing privately owned autonomous vehicles (AVs) for mass evacuation and disaster relief, specifically targeting Critical Transportation Need Households (CTNH) in South Carolina. Motivated by increasing hurricane frequency and a growing population lacking personal vehicle access, the research aims to assist emergency management agencies in preparing for future scenarios where AVs are prevalent. The primary research question determines what percentage of the CTN population can be evacuated based on public willingness to share their AVs and varying levels of AV market penetration. The methodology combined qualitative focus groups with a quantitative survey administered to over 1,000 South Carolina residents. The survey assessed willingness to share AVs for evacuation and disaster relief, identifying limitations and concerns. Researchers developed ordered logit models to identify factors influencing this willingness. These models were then applied to a synthetic South Carolina population derived from Census data to estimate the number of shared AVs available under different market penetration assumptions. Finally, a Monte Carlo simulation model tested the capacity of these shared AVs to evacuate CTNH across various scenarios. Results indicated that over 30% of respondents were willing or very willing to share their AVs. Statistically significant factors influencing willingness included socio-demographics, technology comfort, and volunteering history. For evacuation, unemployment and frequent religious trips positively influenced sharing, while age over 65 and low household income negatively affected it. High comfort with AV deliveries and frequent use of ride-hailing services also increased willingness. The simulation revealed that with 20% AV market penetration, approximately 85% to 90% of CTNH could be evacuated. The study concluded that an AV market penetration of 30% to 35% is sufficient to evacuate all CTNH requiring assistance. The relationship between market penetration and covered demand was linear below 20% and concave above that threshold. The findings suggest that AV sharing has significant potential to enhance governmental disaster response and minimize loss of life by addressing transportation gaps for vulnerable populations. The study bridges the gap between evacuation modeling and emerging AV technology, providing a basis for future research and policy development. It highlights that as AV adoption grows, leveraging private vehicle sharing could substantially augment public evacuation resources, reducing reliance on traditional bus-based systems that often face capacity and popularity challenges.

Key finding

An AV market penetration of 30% to 35% is sufficient to evacuate all critical transportation need households through public sharing of autonomous vehicles.

Methodology

survey

Sample size: 1000

Provenance

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Summary generated by qwen3.6-27b-prismaquant on 2026-06-10; verification: verified.

Topics

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• acceptance adoption