A framework for developing and integrating effective routing strategies within the emergency management decision-support system : [research brief].

Pande, Anurag; Edwards, Frances; Yu, Joseph · 2012 · ROSA P / Mineta Transportation Institute

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Summary

This research brief addresses the critical need for effective evacuation planning in dense urban areas following man-made disasters, such as terrorist attacks. Motivated by incidents like the September 11th attacks and coordinated assaults in Madrid and London, the study focuses on downtown San Jose. The primary objectives were to develop a microscopic simulation model to evaluate pre- and post-disaster network performance, identify traffic bottlenecks impeding private and emergency vehicle movement, create a framework for evaluating routing strategies, and demonstrate rerouting tactics during network link closures. The methodology involved modeling, calibrating, and validating a VISSIM (Verkehr in Städten – Simulation) traffic simulation model for the downtown San Jose street network. The model required extensive data on network geometry, signal timings, coordination schemes, and turning-movement volumes. Validation was achieved by comparing simulated intersection counts with observed data and verifying freeway travel times against actual records. Once the base network was validated, the researchers tested various evacuation scenarios to estimate travel times for both evacuees and emergency-response vehicles under different conditions. The findings revealed that in a scenario involving coordinated attacks at four specific locations (HP Pavilion, IRS Building, State of California Building, and Convention Center), Santa Clara Street and Montgomery Street would experience severe bottlenecks due to evacuee traffic. While implementing contraflow lanes (Scenario 2) assisted evacuee traffic, potential traffic incidents arising from chaos could complicate evacuations. The most effective strategy was identified in Scenario 3, where 30% of evacuees utilized public transit at the Diridon station. This approach resulted in the least travel time for both evacuees and emergency responders. For instance, travel times from the HP Pavilion dropped from 15.6 minutes in a scenario with a traffic incident to 8.5 minutes when transit was utilized. Other scenarios remained critical for contingency planning if the transit station were also compromised. The study concludes that reducing the number of vehicles on the road through public transit ridership is the optimal approach for evacuation, as it keeps area roads uncongested for emergency response personnel. This underscores the vital role of transit in dense urban settings during emergencies. The investigators recommend using contraflow lanes on Montgomery Street (which becomes Bird Avenue) to alleviate congestion if the Diridon Station is affected by attacks. These findings provide a simulation-based framework for integrating effective routing strategies into emergency management decision-support systems, highlighting the importance of multimodal evacuation planning.

Key finding

Routing 30 percent of evacuees through transit at Diridon station produced the lowest travel times for both evacuees and emergency responders, cutting HP Pavilion travel time from 11.5 to 8.5 minutes.

Methodology

simulation_modeling

Provenance

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Topics

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• emergency work zone conspicuity