An integrated method of identifying and ranking danger spots for pedestrians on microlocation

Pešić, Dalibor; Vujanić, Milan; Lipovac, Krsto; Antić, Boris · 2012 · DOAJ

DOI: 10.3846/16484142.2012.664826

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Summary

This paper addresses the challenge of identifying and ranking pedestrian danger spots at microlocations by integrating reactive and proactive traffic safety methods. Traditional approaches often rely solely on historical accident data, which is reactive and fails to identify potential hazards before accidents occur. The authors argue that combining accident analysis with subjective risk perception and conflict techniques provides a more comprehensive safety assessment. The study aims to create a composite ranking system that helps decision-makers prioritize interventions and allocate funds more effectively for pedestrian safety improvements. The methodology consists of three integrated steps applied to a case study at Trg Nikole Pašića Square in Belgrade, Serbia. First, a reactive analysis of 50 pedestrian traffic accidents from 2008 was conducted to identify objective danger spots. These were ranked using a weighted number of accidents formula, assigning weight factors based on accident severity costs (0.1 for property damage, 1 for slight injuries, 10 for severe injuries, and 85.1 for fatalities). Second, a subjective conflict technique was employed by expert observers to identify potential danger spots where conflicts between pedestrians and vehicles occurred. Conflicts were categorized as extremely dangerous, dangerous, or less dangerous, with corresponding weight factors of 10, 5, and 1. Third, a questionnaire survey of 150 drivers and 150 pedestrians was conducted to determine subjective danger spots based on perceived risk. To rank the identified spots, the authors used the Budget Allocation method to determine weight factors for each data source, assigning 0.56 to accident analysis, 0.26 to conflict techniques, and 0.18 to questionnaire results. These weights were applied to the individual ranks to calculate a composite rank for each location. The results demonstrated that the integrated method successfully identified overlapping danger spots where objective, potential, and subjective risks converged. The accident analysis revealed that 68% of accidents occurred near number 10 in the square, with Tuesday and Friday being the highest risk days. The conflict technique identified specific unsafe behaviors, such as pedestrians crossing against red lights and vehicles speeding, as primary sources of potential danger. The questionnaire highlighted concerns regarding intersection geometry that encouraged high vehicle speeds. By applying the composite ranking formula, the study produced a prioritized list of danger spots, allowing for the distinction between locations requiring immediate reactive measures and those needing proactive interventions to prevent future accidents. The significance of this research lies in its provision of a practical, integrated tool for traffic safety management. By combining reactive accident data with proactive conflict analysis and subjective user perception, the method offers a more precise definition of traffic safety problems than single-method approaches. This comprehensive ranking system enables authorities to eliminate both existing black spots and potential future hazards, thereby enhancing pedestrian safety and security. The approach supports efficient resource allocation by highlighting locations where countermeasures will have the greatest impact on reducing both actual and perceived risks.

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• pedestrian behavior perception