Geographic and Time-of-Day Shifts in Pedestrian Crashes by Injury Severity Level
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Summary
This study investigates the geographic and temporal shifts in fatal and severe injury (K&A) pedestrian crashes in the United States between 2008–2012 and 2017–2021. The research was motivated by a 53% increase in pedestrian fatalities during the 2010s, a trend that persisted despite widespread "complete streets" policies and Vision Zero initiatives. Previous research often relied on national or state-level data, which obscured neighborhood-scale dynamics. This study addresses that gap by analyzing crash data at the census tract level and by specific hours and months to identify how risk factors evolved over the decade. The authors utilized police-reported crash data from eight states for geographic analysis (California, Colorado, Massachusetts, New York, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Washington, and Wisconsin) and nine states for temporal analysis (adding Minnesota). The study compared 29,826 geocoded K&A crashes in the baseline period to 35,137 in the later period. Geographic shifts were analyzed using negative binomial and binomial logit models, incorporating demographic, employment, land use, and transportation variables from sources such as the American Community Survey and the EPA Smart Location Database. Temporal shifts were examined by aggregating crashes by hour of the week and month of the year. The findings reveal significant inequities and spatial changes in pedestrian safety. In the baseline period, low-income, high-unemployment, and racial/ethnic minority populations were overrepresented in K&A crashes. These groups were also more likely to experience increases in crashes during the 2010s, exacerbating existing disparities. Neighborhoods with lower population density, higher proportions of retail jobs, and the presence of high-traffic arterials or freeways were significantly more likely to see increases in K&A crashes. Temporally, the highest volume of crashes occurred between 6 pm and midnight, particularly on Friday and Saturday nights. However, the largest proportional increases during the 2010s occurred between midnight and 6 am on weekdays. Additionally, the fourth quarter (October–December) saw the highest concentration of crashes and proportional increases, underscoring the role of darkness in rising injury rates. The study concludes that pedestrian safety outcomes shifted toward areas with specific built-environment characteristics, such as retail-heavy, lower-density neighborhoods with high-speed roadways, and toward late-night weekday hours. These findings suggest that changes in pedestrian and driver behaviors, or activity levels, contributed to the worsening safety trends. The results imply that safety interventions must be targeted at specific neighborhoods and times, particularly addressing risks in areas with high retail employment and during late-night hours, to effectively mitigate the disproportionate impact on vulnerable populations.
Key finding
Fatal and severe pedestrian crashes increased disproportionately in low-income, high-unemployment, and minority neighborhoods, as well as in areas with high-traffic arterials and retail jobs, with the largest temporal increases occurring during weekday late-night hours.
Methodology
field_study
Provenance
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| Stage | Outcome | Tool | Model | Prompt | Attempts | Completed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| discover | success | rosap | — | — | 2 | 2026-05-23 |
| archive | success | — | — | — | 1 | 2026-05-23 |
| extract | success | cached | — | — | 2 | 2026-06-10 |
| clean | success | — | — | — | 1 | 2026-06-01 |
| chunk | success | — | — | — | 1 | 2026-06-01 |
| embed | success | — | — | — | 1 | 2026-06-02 |
| enrich | success | — | — | — | 1 | 2026-05-23 |
| promote | success | — | — | — | 1 | 2026-05-23 |
| summarize | success | llm | qwen3.6-27b-prismaquant | summ-v5 | 3 | 2026-06-10 |
| tag | success | vector_similarity | — | — | 19 | 2026-06-11 |
| verify | success | — | — | — | 2 | 2026-06-10 |
Summary generated by qwen3.6-27b-prismaquant on 2026-06-10; verification: verified.
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- Empirical Findings: crash risk outcomes