Future of Mobility White Paper: California Transportation Plan 2050

Shaheen, Susan; Totte, Hannah; Stocker, Adam · 2018 · ROSA P / University of California, Berkeley. Transportation Sustainability Research Center

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Summary

This white paper, produced by the Transportation Sustainability Research Center at UC Berkeley for the California Department of Transportation (Caltrans), aims to inform the development of the California Transportation Plan 2050 (CTP 2050). The study addresses the rapid transformation of California’s transportation landscape driven by emerging technologies, shifting demographics, and evolving economic conditions. Its primary goal is to provide policymakers and modelers with a comprehensive overview of current trends and future uncertainties to guide long-range planning and scenario analysis. The authors employed a structured methodology involving a review of literature, news reports, and peer-reviewed studies, supplemented by six expert interviews conducted in Spring 2017. The research was further refined through extensive consultation with a Technical Advisory Committee of over 50 members from state and local agencies, as well as feedback from an Expert Panel and public webinar participants. To organize the diverse topics, the authors developed a framework categorizing trends based on three criteria: research coverage (extensive, existing, or limited), state of development (current, emerging, or future), and degree of variance in predictions (low, medium, or high). This framework allows for a comparative assessment of the certainty and maturity of various mobility trends. The paper analyzes topics across three categories. Overarching topics include demographics, economics, climate change, and equity. Key findings indicate that California’s population is projected to grow from 39.4 million in 2016 to 51.1 million by 2060, with significant generational shifts in travel behavior; notably, Millennials drive fewer miles than previous generations, though this may reflect delayed life stages rather than permanent preference changes. Economically, per capita income is expected to rise to $80,000 by 2050, while the paper explores mileage-based road user charges as a potential replacement for gasoline taxes. Current and emerging transportation-specific topics cover connected and automated vehicles, zero-emission vehicles, ridesourcing (TNCs), carsharing, and bikesharing. The paper also addresses high-uncertainty future topics such as drones, blockchain, and hyperloop, noting that these lack robust empirical data but warrant monitoring. The significance of this work lies in its role as a strategic primer for transportation planners facing high uncertainty. By mapping the state of knowledge for each trend, the paper helps identify which metrics can serve as direct model inputs and which require further research. It highlights the need for infrastructure resilience, the integration of innovative technologies, and the implementation of climate goals. The document underscores that while some trends like TNCs and electric vehicles are already impacting the market, others remain speculative, requiring adaptive planning strategies to accommodate potential shifts in mobility patterns through 2050.

Key finding

The white paper provides a structured framework for categorizing transportation trends by research coverage, development stage, and prediction variance to inform the California Transportation Plan 2050.

Methodology

review

Provenance

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