The Transportation Future: Trends, Transportation, and Travel

NHTSA · 2021 · ROSA P / United States. Federal Highway Administration

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Summary

This report, published by the Federal Highway Administration in 2021, analyzes current trends in U.S. transportation and travel to inform future planning amidst significant demographic, economic, and technological shifts. The document addresses the difficulty of predicting transportation demand due to evolving factors such as remote work, e-commerce growth, automation, and the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. It focuses primarily on roadway travel demand, examining how population changes, vehicle ownership, industry trends, and technology influence mobility. The report synthesizes data across seven chapters covering population geography, vehicle fleets, industry and labor, travel demand, and technology. Key demographic findings indicate that while the U.S. population continues to grow, the growth rate has slowed annually since 2015, with most growth occurring in the West and South. The population is aging, with the 65+ cohort growing faster than those under 30, and becoming more diverse. Geographically, 42.6% of the population lives in suburban or small-town areas, which often have travel patterns distinct from urban centers. Vehicle ownership has tripled over four decades, outpacing population growth, though the average number of vehicles per household has leveled off. The household fleet is aging, with SUVs comprising 24% of vehicles in 2017, and new safety or emissions standards taking 4–7 years to reach half the fleet. Regarding travel and industry, total annual vehicle miles traveled (VMT) increased by 17% from 2000 to 2019, reaching 3.28 trillion miles, while lane miles increased by only 7%, contributing to congestion. Freight movement is dominated by trucks, which handled the highest share of the 5.25 trillion ton-miles of freight valued at over $18.9 trillion in 2018. Travel characteristics show that household travel demand has consistently outpaced population growth. Average commute times increased from 25.2 minutes in 2010 to 26.9 minutes in 2019, while carpooling decreased and working from home increased slightly. Technology trends highlight rapid adoption of shared mobility, with 136 million shared micromobility trips in 2019, and a rise in ridesharing app usage from 15% in 2015 to 36% in 2018. Electric vehicle registrations doubled from 2017 to 2018. The report concludes that transportation planning must address emerging themes such as equity in rural and suburban areas, the role of telecommunications as a substitute for physical travel, and the need for integration across modal silos. It emphasizes the challenge of balancing public good with private sector innovation and notes that declining population growth rates and an aging demographic will alter future transportation demands, requiring adaptive infrastructure and policy responses.

Key finding

The report identifies that vehicle ownership growth has significantly outpaced population growth, while demographic shifts toward an older and more diverse population are altering travel demand patterns and mode choices.

Methodology

review

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• Empirical Findings: observational prevalence