Potential Impacts of Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles on Regional Power Generation

Hadley, Stanton W.; Tsvetkova, Alexandra · 2008 · OpenAlex-citations

DOI: 10.2172/932632

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Summary

This study analyzes the potential impacts of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) on regional power generation, electricity demand, supply structures, prices, and emissions across the United States. The research addresses the concern that while PHEVs are expected to recharge during off-peak hours, driver behavior may lead to charging during peak times, potentially straining grid capacity and altering generation mixes. The authors aim to quantify these effects for the years 2020 and 2030 across 13 distinct regions defined by the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) and the U.S. Department of Energy’s Energy Information Administration (EIA). The analysis utilizes the Oak Ridge Competitive Electricity Dispatch (ORCED) model to simulate electricity market responses. The study assumes an optimistic PHEV market penetration of 25% by 2020, involving a mix of sedans and sport utility vehicles. Seven scenarios were modeled for each region and year: a base case with no PHEVs, and six PHEV charging scenarios varying by start time (5:00 p.m. "evening" or 10:00 p.m. "night") and charging power levels (1.4 kW, 2 kW, and 6 kW). Input data for power plant supplies and regional hourly demand were sourced from the EIA and the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, while PHEV electricity requirements were based on Electric Power Research Institute analyses. The results indicate that evening charging, particularly at higher power levels, significantly impacts peak demand and reduces reserve margins, often requiring additional capacity or demand response measures, especially by 2030. In contrast, night charging has minimal impact on peak loads but still alters the type and amount of generation used. The fuel mix for PHEV charging varies by region and timing; for instance, coal usage dominates in some regions during night charging, while gas or oil may be dispatched during evening peaks. In regions with insufficient capacity, such as ERCOT and WECC-CA in 2030, evening charging leads to unserved energy, driving up average electricity prices. Emissions of SO2 and NOx are largely constrained by regulatory caps, limiting net increases despite higher generation. The study concludes that the timing of PHEV charging is critical for grid management. Evening charging poses greater risks to system reliability and cost than night charging. Furthermore, the analysis compares PHEVs to conventional hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs), evaluating differences in fuel use, emissions, and costs. The findings suggest that without strategic charging management or grid expansion, widespread PHEV adoption could lead to localized grid constraints, increased reliance on peaking power plants, and higher electricity costs, particularly in regions with tight capacity margins.

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