Structural and bit-by-bit modeling of the cities

Bauyrzhan, Yedilbayev; Akmaral, Shokanova; Zauresh, Akhmetova; Gani, Askarov; Nurlan, Kalganbayev · 2020 · DOAJ

DOI: 10.1051/e3sconf/202015905001

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Summary

This paper addresses the lack of comprehensive, scientifically grounded ecological and economic models for modern megacities, specifically focusing on Almaty, Kazakhstan. The authors identify a critical gap in existing literature: urban ecology is typically treated factually and in isolation, failing to account for the interrelation between motor vehicle emissions, infrastructure (such as traffic lights and intersections), and environmental impact. Furthermore, there is a scarcity of data regarding the distribution of exhaust gases in residential areas near highways, making it difficult to pinpoint primary pollution sources. The study aims to develop a predictive, integrated model based on statistical theory, logistics, and urban planning strategies to evaluate the city’s ecological condition and justify future development prospects. The methodology employs a "structural and bit-by-bit" approach, derived from the work of academician Balabekov, which analyzes characteristic elements of a system to establish general laws of functioning. Rather than studying the entire metropolis at once, the researchers modeled the city through a hierarchical chain: residential building, yard, microdistrict (quarter), residential area, and finally, the city. Motor transport was similarly analyzed from individual cars to traffic flows. The study utilized data from the Traffic Police of Kazakhstan and the Almaty Local Authority, covering vehicle statistics from 2004 to 2019. A specific cadastral quarter (No. K) was selected as a representative model element due to its typicality in density, traffic intensity, and proximity to stationary air pollution monitoring posts. The authors calculated ecological and economic indicators, including population dynamics (distinguishing between residents and daily visitors), vehicle usage rates, and resource consumption, while adjusting for local factors such as the prevalence of plastic windows reducing air exchange. The results reveal that Almaty operates as an ecological deficit zone, consuming resources without providing environmental compensation. The daily ecological model indicates a significant imbalance: the city consumes 115,000 tons of oxygen daily but produces only 0.7 tons, creating a deficiency of 114,300 tons. Similarly, water and food consumption far exceeds local production capabilities. The study calculates that compensating for these deficits would require approximately 3 million hectares of land—94 times the city’s actual territory. Pollution levels are exacerbated by Almaty’s climatic and orographical features; light winds and temperature inversions trap exhaust gases containing oxides of carbon, nitrogen, and lead in the ground-level atmosphere. The authors found that impurity levels in Almaty exceed maximum permissible concentrations by an average of 2 to 3 times. Additionally, the city’s population density (40.7 thousand people/hectare) significantly exceeds rational standards (25.1 thousand people/hectare), and the number of motor vehicles on highways during rush hours causes severe congestion, further increasing emissions. The significance of this work lies in the creation of the first scientifically grounded set of ecological and economic indicators for Almaty, providing a baseline for future research. The findings highlight that urban industrialization and construction have disrupted natural air circulation corridors, creating an "aerodynamic shadow" that prevents the dispersion of pollutants. The paper concludes that current urban planning fails to account for physical and climatic constraints, leading to severe ecological disruption. The proposed model offers a framework for assessing the environmental impact of urban infrastructure and suggests that future development must prioritize ecological frameworks, such as green corridors and proper ventilation pathways, to mitigate the adverse effects of motor transport and high population density.

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