Sustainable Civil Infrastructures Utilization and Regulations of Innovative Technology to Improve Road Safety via Drivers’ Warnings and Enforcement

Abufares, Lama; Awadallah, Faisal · 2021 · Crossref

DOI: 10.1007/978-3-030-79650-1_9

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Summary

This report by the Victoria Transport Policy Institute critically evaluates the deployment timeline, costs, and impacts of autonomous vehicles (AVs) on transportation planning. It challenges optimistic industry predictions that AVs will rapidly displace human driving by the 2030s, arguing instead that significant technical, regulatory, and economic barriers will delay widespread adoption. The analysis aims to inform decision-makers regarding future needs for roads, parking, and public transit, emphasizing that AVs are likely to be a gradual evolution rather than an immediate paradigm shift. The study utilizes historical data on the market penetration of previous vehicle technologies, such as automatic transmissions and airbags, to project AV adoption rates. It compares various operational models, including private human-driven, private autonomous, shared autonomous taxis, and shared autonomous rides (micro-transit). The analysis assesses benefits and costs across internal user impacts and external societal effects, incorporating factors often overlooked in optimistic forecasts, such as battery replacement, road user fees, cleaning, vandalism repairs, and insurance. The findings indicate that Level 5 autonomous vehicles (fully autonomous in all conditions) may become commercially available in some jurisdictions by the late 2020s but will initially be expensive and limited in performance. Widespread benefits, such as reduced congestion and affordable mobility for low-income populations, are not expected until the 2040s to 2060s, when AVs become common and affordable. The report projects that half of new vehicles will be autonomous only by 2045, and half of the total fleet by 2060. Cost analysis reveals that private AVs will likely cost $0.80–$1.20 per mile, more than human-driven cars but less than ride-hailing. Shared AVs will cost $0.50–$1.00 per vehicle-mile. The report warns that without dedicated lanes and efficient pricing policies, AVs may increase total vehicle travel by 10–30% in suburban and rural areas due to increased convenience and empty vehicle miles, thereby exacerbating congestion and sprawl. The significance of this research lies in its cautionary approach to AV integration. It concludes that AVs will not automatically solve transportation problems; their net impact depends heavily on policy choices regarding land use, pricing, and infrastructure design. The report urges planners to maintain support for public transit and active transportation modes to ensure social equity, as optimistic AV predictions may otherwise lead to reduced funding for these services. It emphasizes that maximizing AV benefits requires managing external costs and preventing the technology from discouraging other transport improvements.

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• acceptance adoption
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• Empirical Findings: observational prevalence