The relationship of written examination performance to safe driving : a literature review with recommended methods for developing exams.

Atkins, Alden L · 1984 · ROSA P / Virginia Transportation Research Council (VTRC)

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Summary

This 1984 literature review by Alden L. Atkins, commissioned by the Virginia Division of Motor Vehicles (DMV), examines the efficacy of written driver license examinations in predicting safe driving behavior and offers recommendations for exam development. The study was motivated by the DMV’s intent to revise its licensing tests and the need to understand whether these exams effectively identify unsafe drivers or serve other purposes, such as incentivizing the learning of traffic laws. The paper synthesizes existing research to evaluate two primary justifications for written exams: their ability to predict unsafe driving and their role in encouraging applicants to study driver manuals. Regarding predictive validity, the review finds that current examinations are poor predictors of future accidents or citations. Studies cited, such as those by Stoke and Carpenter, indicate that passing or failing standard exams has little to no effect on subsequent driving behavior. While some research (e.g., McKnight and Edwards) found weak correlations between test scores and accidents for specific demographic groups—such as new, older, or previously cited drivers—these relationships were not strong enough to justify using exams as a general screening tool. Furthermore, the review highlights that behavioral characteristics, such as non-aggression, are often more significant to safety than knowledge of rules. The author argues that using exams to screen out unsafe drivers is practically and legally problematic. Such a method would be "over-inclusive," requiring the failure of many safe drivers to catch a few unsafe ones, which would face public backlash and potential legal challenges regarding due process rights. Consequently, the paper suggests that the primary justification for written exams should be their ability to create an incentive for drivers to learn relevant safety information. To achieve this, the review recommends expanding exam content beyond basic traffic laws to include safe driving procedures, vehicle maintenance, alcohol implications, and emergency procedures. It also advocates for tailoring exam content to specific driver groups, such as older drivers or repeat violators, to address their specific information deficiencies. Finally, the report provides detailed methodological guidelines for developing valid and reliable examinations. It emphasizes the importance of pretesting items for appropriate reading levels, clarity, and difficulty, ensuring that questions are neither too easy nor too hard. The author recommends assembling test forms with internal consistency and sufficient length (30+ questions) to ensure reliability. Additionally, the review discusses administrative methods, suggesting that home testing is viable if it does not compromise safety screening, and that exam waivers for safe drivers should be structured as forward-looking incentives rather than retrospective rewards to effectively influence future behavior.

Key finding

Written driver license examinations are poor predictors of unsafe driving behavior and are overly inclusive, failing many safe drivers to screen out a small number of unsafe ones.

Methodology

review

Provenance

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Summary generated by qwen3.6-27b-prismaquant on 2026-06-10; verification: verified.

Topics

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• driver education effectiveness
• licensing policy
• fitness to drive assessment
• learner drivers

Information type

What kind of knowledge this paper contributes, grouped by family — independent of topic (what it is about) and method (how it was studied).

• Applied Guidance: countermeasure evaluation
• Methodological Resource: validation psychometrics
• Theoretical Contribution: computational model