Older Drivers, the Age Factor in Traffic Safety

Cerrelli, Ezio C. · 1989 · ROSA P / United States. National Highway Traffic Safety Administration

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Summary

This 1989 National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) technical report, authored by Ezio Cerrelli, investigates the relationship between driver age and traffic safety, specifically focusing on older drivers. The study was motivated by the growing elderly population, increased longevity, and the rising number of older drivers, necessitating a clearer understanding of their crash experience to inform highway safety efforts. The research addresses two primary questions: whether older drivers are more likely to be involved in crashes than other age groups, and whether they are more prone to severe or fatal injuries once a crash occurs. To answer these questions, the report utilizes data from five states (Maryland, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Texas, and Washington) selected for their comprehensive record-keeping, alongside national data from the Fatal Accident Reporting System (FARS), the National Personal Transportation Survey (NPTS), and Federal Highway Administration licensing records. Crash involvement rates were calculated by combining state police-reported crash data with estimates of vehicle miles of travel (VMT) for each age group. Injury consequences were analyzed using Texas accident files, which included standardized vehicle deformation measurements (TAD levels) to assess crash severity independent of driver age. The findings reveal that while motor vehicle crashes are not a leading cause of death for older persons compared to diseases like heart disease, their crash risk profile is distinct. Absolute crash involvement counts are highest for teenagers and decline with age; however, when adjusted for exposure (VMT), the involvement rate follows a "U" shape. Risk is high for drivers aged 16–19, drops significantly for ages 35–65, and rises sharply after age 70, peaking for those over 85. Older drivers tend to drive more in urban areas, during daylight hours, and at intersections, and they commit a higher proportion of right-of-way and traffic signal violations. Crucially, the analysis of crash severity showed no significant difference in the physical severity of crashes experienced by different age groups. Instead, older drivers exhibited a significantly higher susceptibility to injury. For crashes of equal severity, the percentage of severe injuries increased with driver age. Furthermore, the likelihood of a severe injury resulting in fatality rose dramatically for drivers over 70, reaching nearly 30 fatalities per 100 severe injuries for the oldest group, compared to roughly 12 for drivers under 70. The significance of this report lies in its distinction between crash involvement risk and injury vulnerability. It concludes that while older drivers have lower total crash counts due to reduced travel, their risk per mile driven is high, particularly after age 80. More importantly, the data provide strong evidence that the increased fatality rate among older drivers is not due to involvement in more severe crashes, but rather to physiological frailty and lower tolerance for injury. This implies that safety interventions for older drivers should focus on mitigating injury consequences and addressing specific driving behaviors, such as intersection navigation and right-of-way compliance, rather than solely reducing crash frequency.

Key finding

The fatality rate for drivers aged 85 and above is approximately 31 per 100 million vehicle miles of travel, which is nearly 36 times higher than the rate of 0.85 for drivers in their forties, and older drivers have a fatality-to-severe-injury ratio of 30 compared to 12 for drivers under 70.

Methodology

dataset

Provenance

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Summary generated by qwen3.6-27b-prismaquant on 2026-06-10; verification: verified.

Topics

Ranked by relevance to this paper. Hover a topic for its definition.

• older drivers
• sex gender
• demographic disparities
• incidence prevalence
• fatality injury trends
• comparative international

Information type

What kind of knowledge this paper contributes, grouped by family — independent of topic (what it is about) and method (how it was studied).

• Empirical Findings: crash risk outcomes, observational prevalence
• Methodological Resource: dataset resource