Identifying Behaviors and Situations Associated With Increased Crash Risk for Older Drivers

Stutts, Jane; Martell, Carol; Staplin, Loren · 2009 · ROSA P / United States. National Highway Traffic Safety Administration. Office of Behavioral Safety Research

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Summary

This report addresses the need to identify specific driving behaviors, vehicle maneuvers, and environmental conditions associated with increased crash risk for older drivers. Motivated by the goal of developing targeted safety countermeasures, the study aims to distinguish between situations where older drivers are merely overrepresented in crash statistics and those where they exhibit higher rates of at-fault involvement, thereby controlling for differences in driving exposure. The researchers analyzed national crash data from 2002 to 2006 using two primary databases: the Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS) for fatal crashes and the National Automotive Sampling System/General Estimates System (GES) for police-reported crashes of all severities. The study focused on single- and two-vehicle crashes involving passenger cars, SUVs, light vans, and pickups. Two analytical approaches were employed. First, descriptive analyses identified scenarios where drivers aged 60–69, 70–79, and 80+ were overrepresented compared to younger cohorts. Second, an “induced exposure” analysis was conducted on two-vehicle crashes to calculate Crash Involvement Ratios (CIRs). This method compared the ratio of at-fault to not-at-fault drivers within specific age groups, using each group as its own control to adjust for exposure differences. Fault was determined based on contributing factors and moving violations, excluding non-performance-related issues. The findings reveal distinct risk profiles across age groups. Drivers aged 60–69 generally managed traffic situations similarly to middle-aged drivers, with only slight risk elevations when navigating intersections with flashing lights or making left turns at signalized intersections. Drivers aged 70–79 showed increased risk in complex conditions, such as navigating high-speed, multi-lane roadways and junctions. Drivers aged 80 and older exhibited substantially higher CIRs across various conditions, particularly in complex maneuvers like left turns and intersection navigation. In FARS data, the overall CIR for at-fault involvement rose from 0.75 for ages 60–69 to 1.75 for ages 70–79, and 4.0 for ages 80+. GES data showed a less extreme increase (0.73, 1.14, and 1.91, respectively), suggesting that older drivers’ higher fatality rates in FARS may partly reflect physical frailty rather than solely increased fault. Older drivers were also more likely to be the struck vehicle in angle crashes and to receive citations for failure to yield. The significance of this study lies in its detailed characterization of older driver crash risks, providing evidence-based insights for safety interventions. By differentiating between exposure-adjusted fault rates and general crash involvement, the report highlights that risk increases significantly with age, particularly for drivers over 70 in complex driving environments. These findings support the development of targeted countermeasures, such as improved intersection design and traffic control measures, to mitigate the specific performance errors and situational challenges faced by older drivers.

Key finding

Drivers aged 80 and older had a Crash Involvement Ratio of 4.0 in fatal crashes and 1.91 in non-fatal crashes, indicating substantially higher at-fault risk compared to middle-aged drivers, particularly in intersection and left-turn scenarios.

Methodology

dataset

Provenance

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Summary generated by qwen3.6-27b-prismaquant on 2026-06-10; verification: verified.

Topics

Ranked by relevance to this paper. Hover a topic for its definition.

• sex gender
• older drivers
• novice drivers
• incidence prevalence
• induced exposure
• pre crash contributing factors

Information type

What kind of knowledge this paper contributes, grouped by family — independent of topic (what it is about) and method (how it was studied).

• Empirical Findings: crash risk outcomes, observational prevalence
• Methodological Resource: dataset resource