Community design and the incidence of crashes involving pedestrians and motorists aged 75 and older.

Dumbaugh, Eric; Zhang, Yi; Li, Wenhao · 2012 · ROSA P / Texas Transportation Institute. University Transportation Center for Mobility

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Summary

This study addresses the gap in literature regarding the relationship between community design and traffic safety for older adults, specifically those aged 75 and older. While contemporary urban design has historically focused on protecting children, little attention has been paid to how built environments affect older pedestrians and motorists. The research was motivated by demographic projections indicating a significant increase in the population aged 75+ by 2050, alongside existing policies that often restrict older drivers based on fatal crash statistics, which the authors argue suffer from a "frailty bias" rather than reflecting actual crash propensity. The researchers employed negative binomial regression models to analyze the incidence of total and killed-or-severely-injured (KSI) crashes. The study area comprised 938 census block groups within the San Antonio-Bexar County region, selected to represent urban rather than rural characteristics. Data were collected from 2003 to 2007, integrating geo-located crash records from the Texas Department of Transportation with GIS-based data on street networks, land use, traffic volumes, and demographics. Key independent variables included counts of intersections, strip commercial uses, big-box stores (defined as ≥50,000 sq. ft. with low floor-area ratios), and pedestrian-scaled retail uses (≤20,000 sq. ft. with high floor-area ratios). The analysis controlled for vehicle miles traveled, block group acreage, and the population of older adults. The findings indicate that common features of suburban design significantly increase crash risks for older adults. For older motorists, arterial thoroughfares, strip commercial uses, and big-box stores were associated with significant increases in both total and KSI crashes. Conversely, pedestrian-scaled retail uses, which correlate with lower operating speeds, were associated with significantly fewer crashes. For older pedestrians, arterial thoroughfares and big-box stores were identified as primary crash risk factors. Crucially, the presence of a network of lower-speed streets was associated with significant reductions in crashes involving both older motorists and pedestrians. The study concludes that contemporary community design practices, which often channel local traffic onto high-speed arterials and concentrate retail in large, car-oriented developments, likely exacerbate crash risks for older adults. The authors argue that shifting toward pedestrian-scaled retail and networks of lower-speed streets can improve safety for this demographic. These findings challenge the prevailing design paradigm that prioritizes traffic efficiency on arterials over the safety needs of vulnerable road users, suggesting that urban form plays a critical role in mitigating traffic injuries among the aging population.

Key finding

Arterial thoroughfares, strip commercial uses, and big-box stores significantly increase crash incidence for older drivers, while networks of lower-speed streets and pedestrian-scaled retail uses significantly reduce crashes for both older motorists and pedestrians.

Methodology

dataset

Provenance

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Topics

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• incidence prevalence
• urban rural setting
• demographic disparities
• pedal misapplication
• vru crash typology

Information type

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• Empirical Findings: crash risk outcomes