An analysis of crash likelihood : age versus driving experience

Eby, David W. · 1995 · ROSA P / University of Michigan. Transportation Research Institute

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Summary

This study investigates the relative contributions of driver age and driving experience to crash likelihood, addressing the longstanding observation that young drivers are overrepresented in traffic accidents. The research aims to disentangle "youth-related" factors, such as risk-taking propensity and social influences, from "experience-related" factors, such as the acquisition of driving skills. Specifically, the paper seeks to determine at what age youth-related crash factors become negligible compared to experience-related factors, and whether a young, experienced driver poses a similar risk to an older, inexperienced one. The analysis utilized data from the Michigan Department of State’s driver history records for individuals aged 18 to 25 as of December 31, 1993. The study examined two independent variables: driver age (eight levels: 18–25 years) and driving experience (two levels: one year or two years of licensure). The dependent variable was the annual number of crashes per person. Drivers were selected based on precise licensing durations (11–13 months for one year; 23–25 months for two years). To assess generalizability, the findings were compared against national crash data from the General Estimates System. The results revealed distinct patterns based on experience level. For drivers with one year of experience, crash rates declined consistently from age 18 to 23, with a slight upturn at age 22, before leveling off between ages 23 and 25. This trend suggests that youth-related risk factors diminish significantly by age 23. Conversely, drivers with two years of experience saw crash rates decline until age 21, after which rates increased slightly. Notably, drivers aged 23–25 with two years of experience had significantly higher crash rates than their same-aged counterparts with only one year of experience. Statistical analysis confirmed significant effects for age, experience, and their interaction. The study also noted a universal increase in crash rates between ages 21 and 22, likely attributable to the legal drinking age and associated inexperience with impaired driving. The study concludes that age and experience interact complexly to determine crash risk. A 25-year-old with one year of experience is less likely to crash than an 18-year-old with two years of experience, indicating that maturity reduces risk even with limited driving practice. The highest risk group consists of 18- and 19-year-olds with only one year of experience. The findings imply that while skill acquisition is critical in the first year of driving, maturational factors remain influential until the early twenties. The similarity between Michigan and national data suggests these trends are broadly applicable.

Key finding

Drivers aged 23 to 25 with two years of experience had significantly higher crash rates than those with one year of experience, while 25-year-olds with one year of experience were less likely to crash than 18-year-olds with two years of experience.

Methodology

dataset

Sample size: 100000

Provenance

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Summary generated by qwen3.6-27b-prismaquant on 2026-06-10; verification: verified_with_issues.

Topics

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• novice drivers
• sex gender
• incidence prevalence
• induced exposure

Information type

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• Empirical Findings: crash risk outcomes