Growing the Idaho economy : moving into the future.

Hiemstra, Glen · 2010 · ROSA P / Idaho. Transportation Department

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Summary

This report, commissioned by the Idaho Transportation Department (ITD) as part of the development of a new Statewide Transportation Plan, addresses the strategic link between transportation infrastructure and Idaho’s economic growth from 2010 to 2030. The study was motivated by the need to update assumptions made in a 2004 transportation vision, which had underestimated the severity of the global economic crisis and the rapid decline of cheap fossil fuels. The primary research question is how Idaho can leverage its world-class assets to build a robust, future-proof economy while adapting its transportation system to emerging global trends. The methodology employs a futurist perspective rather than traditional technical forecasting. The author, Glen Hiemstra, analyzes six dynamic global forces shaping the future: demographic shifts (aging population and digital natives), the rise of a knowledge-based economy, the transition from fossil fuels to 21st-century energy, technological advancements, climate regulatory impacts, and food security challenges. The report inventories Idaho’s current assets, including outdoor recreation opportunities, the Idaho National Laboratory, technology firms like Micron, and agricultural legacies. It then constructs four future economic scenarios: Sunrise Energy Technology Corridor, Creative Class Cities, 21st-century Agriculture, and Tourism of the Future. The analysis also identifies risks to this preferred future, such as transportation funding shortages, water availability issues, and political culture. Key findings indicate that Idaho’s population will grow by approximately 27 percent by 2030, with significant demographic changes including an aging workforce and a younger generation less likely to drive. The report concludes that the era of cheap fossil fuels is ending, necessitating a gradual but accelerating shift toward electric and hybrid vehicles. To compete globally, Idaho must transition from a traditional economy to one focused on next-generation energy technology, sustainable agriculture, tourism leadership, and attracting the "creative class." The study highlights that Idaho lags in higher education attainment compared to its strength in patents and technology jobs, identifying this as a critical barrier to future competitiveness. The significance of the report lies in its twelve strategic implications for transportation planning. These include focusing on critical commerce corridors, preserving the current system, planning for vehicle transitions and increased freight traffic, doubling transit capacity, and joining intelligent transportation systems efforts. The report argues that transportation planning must think beyond infrastructure to include broader economic and social factors. It concludes that achieving Idaho’s economic goals, such as increasing GDP from $51 billion to $60 billion, requires proactive strategic choices rather than relying on business-as-usual approaches, emphasizing that the future is "choice-full" and dependent on decisions made in the present.

Key finding

The report identifies next-generation energy technology, sustainable agriculture, tourism leadership, and attracting the creative class as primary economic opportunities for Idaho, requiring transportation strategies that focus on critical commerce corridors, vehicle transition infrastructure, and increased density.

Methodology

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Provenance

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