Beyond Traffic 2045 Reimagining Transportation: Technology, Disruptive Innovation, and the Future of Transportation

Barami, Bahar; Merrefield, Clark · 2016 · ROSA P / John A. Volpe National Transportation Systems Center (U.S.)

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Summary

This report summarizes the findings from the "Beyond Traffic 2045: Reimagining Transportation" thought leadership speaker series, hosted by the John A. Volpe National Transportation Systems Center in late 2015. The series was convened to advance the national conversation initiated by the U.S. Department of Transportation’s *Beyond Traffic 2045* report, which identified critical trends and challenges facing the U.S. transportation system. The primary motivation was to address the unprecedented pace of technological innovation—such as automation, connectivity, and data analytics—and to explore how these forces will reshape transportation infrastructure, safety, and sustainability over the next 30 years. The report synthesizes perspectives from experts in academia, industry, and government to identify strategic choices necessary for managing this transition. The document is structured around three thematic pillars: Innovation and Decision Making, Safety and Mobility, and Sustainability. In the innovation domain, Andrew McAfee (MIT) described a "second machine age" where computing power enables machines to perform complex tasks, arguing that decision-making should rely on data rather than intuition. Ken Gabriel (Draper) emphasized that breakthrough innovation requires independent teams free from rigid roadmaps and organizational constraints. Regarding safety and mobility, Chris Urmson (Google) detailed the testing of self-driving vehicles, noting that 94% of accidents are caused by human error and that automation could significantly reduce fatalities if widely adopted. Anthony Townsend (NYU) presented four future scenarios for metropolitan mobility: growth, collapse, constraint, and transformation, highlighting how policy choices determine outcomes. Harry Lightsey (General Motors) outlined the shift from crash survival to crash avoidance through connected vehicles, while Donald Fisher (Volpe) warned of the disconnect between manufacturer goals for full autonomy and driver preferences for control. In air transportation, Edward Bolton (FAA) described the NextGen program’s modernization of airspace through satellite-based communication, and John Cavolowsky (NASA) discussed the integration of unmanned aerial systems into traffic management. Finally, John Heywood (MIT) addressed sustainability, proposing a three-pronged approach to reducing greenhouse gas emissions: improving fuel consumption, conserving energy through urban planning, and transforming the vehicle fleet via market mechanisms. The report concludes that while technological advancements offer significant potential for safer, more efficient, and sustainable transportation, realizing these benefits depends on proactive planning, regulation, and societal adaptation. Key implications include the need for data-driven decision-making, the development of shared visions between manufacturers and users regarding automation levels, and the implementation of rigorous transportation planning to curb sprawl and reduce emissions. The series underscores that the future of transportation is not predetermined but will be shaped by the choices made by communities, policymakers, and industry leaders in the coming decades.

Key finding

The report outlines four potential transportation futures—growth, collapse, constraint, and transformation—driven by varying levels of technological innovation and policy oversight, while emphasizing that safety improvements and sustainability require coordinated efforts in automation, connectivity, and demand management.

Methodology

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