The Assessment of Pedestrian-Vehicle Conflicts at Crosswalks Considering Sudden Pedestrian Speed Change Events

Khaleel Alhajyaseen, Wael; Iryo, Miho · 2016 · Crossref

DOI: 10.5339/qfarc.2016.ictpp2369

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Summary

This study addresses the critical safety issue of pedestrian-vehicle conflicts at crosswalks, specifically focusing on the impact of sudden pedestrian speed changes. Pedestrians are highly vulnerable road users, accounting for over one-third of traffic fatalities in Japan, with most incidents occurring during road crossings. While traffic simulation is a powerful tool for evaluating safety countermeasures, existing models often assume constant walking speeds and strict rule compliance. This assumption fails to capture the complex, variable behaviors pedestrians exhibit at crosswalks, such as accelerating to clear the road before signal changes. These unpredictable maneuvers can lead to severe conflicts if drivers cannot anticipate the pedestrian’s arrival time. The research aims to quantitatively model these sudden speed change events and integrate them into traffic simulations to provide more accurate safety assessments. The methodology involves a two-step process: modeling pedestrian behavior and integrating it into a simulation environment. First, the authors analyzed empirical data to identify factors influencing sudden speed changes, noting that these events typically occur at the entrance to conflict areas or when there is a significant gap between current speed and the speed required to finish crossing before the signal ends. The probability of a speed change was modeled as a function of remaining green time, remaining distance to cross, and current walking speed. Second, this pedestrian model was combined with a comprehensive turning vehicle maneuver model that accounts for driver reactions to road geometry and surrounding users. The integrated simulation generates speed profiles for both pedestrians and vehicles, allowing for the estimation of surrogate safety measures, such as Post Encroachment Time and vehicle speeds at conflict points. The validity of the simulation was verified by comparing estimated safety measures with observed data from a selected signalized crosswalk using statistical tests. The findings demonstrate that incorporating sudden speed change behaviors into simulation environments produces more realistic and reliable representations of pedestrian maneuvers and turning vehicle trajectories. By accounting for these unpredictable actions, the model enables a more accurate assessment of the probability and severity of pedestrian-vehicle conflicts. The study confirms that ignoring these speed variations leads to an underestimation of safety risks, as drivers often base their decisions on expected arrival times that do not account for sudden accelerations. The significance of this work lies in its application to traffic safety planning and technology. The improved simulation model allows for the effective evaluation of signal control settings and geometric layouts, facilitating the design of safer and more efficient crosswalk operations. Furthermore, the model supports real-time hazardous conflict event detection, which can be applied to vehicle safety assistance systems. By providing a more nuanced understanding of pedestrian-vehicle interactions, this research contributes to the development of better decision-support tools for traffic engineers and safety analysts.

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Topics

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• pedestrian behavior perception
• driver vru interaction
• child pedestrian
• rail grade crossings