Evaluation of Road Weather Messages on DMS Based on Roadside Pavement Sensors

Knickerbocker, Skylar; Sassani, Alireza; Hans, Zach · 2021 · ROSA P / Minnesota. Department of Transportation

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Summary

This study evaluates the effectiveness of Dynamic Message Signs (DMS) displaying winter weather advisories on driver behavior along the US 12 corridor between Delano and Maple Plain, Minnesota. Sponsored by the Minnesota Department of Transportation (MnDOT), the research addresses the need to verify whether real-time, sensor-triggered messaging improves safety and mobility by encouraging drivers to adjust their speed and following distances during adverse conditions. The primary motivation is to determine if these systems achieve intended compliance and reduce crash risks, given that driver behavior remains a critical factor in winter weather safety. The methodology involved a comparative analysis of traffic data collected during 14 winter weather events in the 2020–21 season, excluding two events due to data quality issues. Researchers deployed temporary traffic sensors upstream and downstream of the DMS locations to measure changes in mean speed, 85th percentile speed, speed standard deviation, and vehicle gaps. Upstream sensors served as a control, while downstream sensors measured potential DMS influence. Data from roadside pavement sensors, including friction and precipitation metrics, triggered the DMS messages. The analysis compared traffic metrics during active winter weather events against baseline periods to isolate the impact of the messaging from natural traffic variations. Results indicated a directional disparity in effectiveness. In the eastbound direction, the DMS system demonstrated statistically significant reductions in driver speeds. Specifically, mean speeds decreased by an average of 3.5 mph, and 85th percentile speeds decreased by 2.9 mph across individual events. Combined analysis showed downstream mean speeds reduced by 1.5 mph and 85th percentile speeds by 2.0 mph. Additionally, there were statistically significant positive effects on vehicle gaps when all events were combined. Conversely, the westbound direction yielded mixed and often counterproductive results. Mean speeds increased by an average of 2.5 mph in seven events, with combined analysis showing a 1.45 mph increase in mean speed and a 2.2 mph increase in 85th percentile speed. The authors attribute these westbound anomalies to external factors, such as the DMS placement within an urban area, multiple intersections, and differing road maintenance conditions between sensor locations. The study concludes that DMS winter weather messaging can positively influence driver behavior by reducing speeds, particularly in rural settings with minimal external interference, as seen in the eastbound direction. However, the effectiveness is highly sensitive to site-specific conditions, including urban context and maintenance practices. The findings suggest that while the technology holds promise for improving safety, agencies must carefully evaluate deployment locations and account for confounding variables to ensure the messaging achieves its intended safety outcomes. Future research is recommended to model the impact of precipitation types and accumulation levels on driver compliance.

Key finding

Eastbound traffic exhibited statistically significant speed reductions of 3.5 mph in mean speed and 2.9 mph in 85th percentile speed when exposed to winter weather DMS messages, whereas westbound traffic showed mixed results with significant speed increases due to confounding external factors.

Methodology

on_road

Sample size: 16

Provenance

The full processing record for this entry. Every stage of this paper's journey through the pipeline is logged — what ran, with which tool and model, how many attempts it took, and when it last completed. Discovered via bulk_ingest_rosap on 2026-05-23 (6 acquisition events logged).

Summary generated by qwen3.6-27b-prismaquant on 2026-06-10; verification: verified.

Topics

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• signage environment
• perceptual countermeasures
• speed choice