Economic externalities of relative accident rates.

Martinelli, David; Diosdado, Paulina · 2008 · ROSA P / Mid-Atlantic Universities Transportation Center

archive: archived pipeline: cataloged verified

Get this paper ↗ (full text — opens at the source; we link to it, we don't host it)

Summary

This study investigates whether Sport Utility Vehicle (SUV) drivers impose safety externalities on passenger car occupants through offsetting behavior, a phenomenon known as the Peltzman Effect. The research is motivated by the dramatic increase in SUV ownership in the United States, which rose from 183,000 units in 1980 to over 4.5 million in 2008. This surge has raised concerns regarding vehicle incompatibility and the potential for SUV drivers to engage in riskier driving behaviors due to a perceived sense of security provided by the vehicle’s size and weight. The primary objective is to determine if SUV drivers are more likely to cause fatal crashes than passenger car drivers, thereby posing a hazard to non-SUV occupants. To address this, the authors adapt a statistical model originally developed by Levitt and Potter (2001) for analyzing drinking drivers. The method utilizes data from the Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS), focusing exclusively on two-car fatal crashes. The model relies on the assumption that driver interactions are random and that fault in a crash is attributable to a single driver. By analyzing the distribution of crash configurations—passenger car/passenger car (P/P), SUV/SUV (T/T), and mixed (P/T)—the study calculates a parameter $\theta$, which represents the relative likelihood of an SUV driver causing a fatal crash compared to a passenger car driver. To ensure data homogeneity and minimize confounding variables, the analysis restricts crashes to those occurring on weekdays between 6:00 AM and 5:59 PM, thereby reducing the influence of alcohol-impaired driving. The data is segmented into six geographic regions (Mid-Atlantic, Mid-West, New England, South, Texas, and West Coast) and analyzed across overlapping three-year periods from 1995 to 2006. The results indicate distinct regional trends in fatal crash configurations. In the Mid-Atlantic and South regions, there is a clear pattern of decreasing P/P fatal crashes and increasing P/SUV fatal crashes, while SUV/SUV crashes remain low and constant. The Mid-West region shows a similar divergence, with P/P crashes declining and P/SUV crashes rising until an equilibrium appears after 2002–2004. In contrast, New England and the West Coast show decreasing P/P crashes and increasing P/SUV crashes, though with some fluctuation in specific periods. Texas exhibits a significant increase in SUV/P fatal crashes that overtakes the declining trend of P/P crashes. These distributions allow for the calculation of $\theta$ to assess relative risk, though the provided text truncates before presenting the final numerical values for $\theta$ or their statistical significance. The significance of this research lies in its attempt to isolate driver behavior from vehicle physical characteristics. By separating the effects of vehicle incompatibility from driver offsetting behavior, the study aims to clarify whether the safety benefits of SUVs are negated by riskier driving patterns. If SUV drivers are found to be more likely to cause fatal crashes, it implies that the increased safety for SUV occupants comes at the expense of passenger car occupants, validating the Peltzman Effect in the context of vehicle choice. This has implications for traffic safety policy, vehicle regulation, and the understanding of how perceived safety features influence driver risk-taking.

Key finding

SUV drivers demonstrated a lower relative likelihood of causing fatal two-car crashes compared to passenger car drivers in the majority of analyzed U.S. regions.

Methodology

dataset

Provenance

The full processing record for this entry. Every stage of this paper's journey through the pipeline is logged — what ran, with which tool and model, how many attempts it took, and when it last completed. Discovered via bulk_ingest_rosap on 2026-05-23 (6 acquisition events logged).

Summary generated by qwen3.6-27b-prismaquant on 2026-06-10; verification: verified_with_issues.

Topics

Ranked by relevance to this paper. Hover a topic for its definition.

• incidence prevalence
• demographic disparities
• comparative international
• induced exposure
• sex gender
• fatality injury trends

Information type

What kind of knowledge this paper contributes, grouped by family — independent of topic (what it is about) and method (how it was studied).

• Empirical Findings: crash risk outcomes, observational prevalence
• Methodological Resource: dataset resource