Individual differences and 11-year longitudinal changes in older adults’ prospective memory: A comparison with episodic memory, working memory, processing speed, and verbal knowledge
DOI: 10.1016/j.jml.2024.104602
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Summary
This study investigates individual differences and longitudinal changes in prospective memory (PM) among older adults, comparing these trajectories with episodic memory, working memory, processing speed, and verbal knowledge. Prospective memory—the ability to remember intended actions after a delay—is critical for independent living in later life, yet research has historically relied on cross-sectional designs or small longitudinal samples with limited follow-up periods. This gap leaves unclear whether PM declines similarly to other cognitive domains and how sociodemographic factors influence its development. The authors address these questions using data from the Zurich Longitudinal Study on Cognitive Aging, aiming to provide a comprehensive analysis of PM stability and variability across an 11-year period. The researchers analyzed data from 364 older adults (aged 65–80 at baseline) across four measurement waves spanning up to 11 years. Participants completed a battery of cognitive tasks assessing PM (event-based and time-based tasks), episodic memory, working memory, processing speed, and verbal knowledge. The study employed linear mixed modeling with Bayesian estimation to examine individual differences in performance levels and within-person change over time. Additionally, the analysis explored the impact of sociodemographic variables, including education, income, sex, and health status, on PM trajectories. This design allowed for a robust comparison of PM against other core cognitive abilities while controlling for potential confounding variables. The results revealed substantial individual differences in cognitive performance, with prospective memory exhibiting the highest variability among all measured domains. Longitudinal analysis indicated that age-related declines were most pronounced in working memory and processing speed, while verbal knowledge remained stable. In contrast, PM showed relatively small age-related decreases. Notably, individual differences in the rate of cognitive decline were observed only for processing speed and verbal knowledge; no significant variability in within-person change was found for PM, even after accounting for other cognitive abilities and sociodemographic covariates. This pattern suggests that while PM performance varies widely between individuals, the trajectory of decline over time is more uniform compared to other cognitive functions. These findings highlight the complex interplay between cognitive abilities and aging, demonstrating that prospective memory is distinct in its high inter-individual variability but relative stability in longitudinal decline. The study underscores the importance of distinguishing between level differences and change trajectories when assessing cognitive aging. By providing the first in-depth longitudinal examination of PM in comparison to other key cognitive domains, the research offers critical insights for understanding successful aging and the multidimensionality of cognitive development in late life. The results suggest that interventions or assessments targeting PM should account for significant baseline variability, even if the rate of decline is consistent across the population.
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| Stage | Outcome | Tool | Model | Prompt | Attempts | Completed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| discover | success | OpenAlex-citations | — | — | 1 | 2026-06-18 |
| archive | success | openalex | — | — | 5 | 2026-06-25 |
| extract | success | cached | — | — | 2 | 2026-06-26 |
| clean | success | clean | — | — | 1 | 2026-06-18 |
| chunk | success | chunk | — | — | 1 | 2026-06-18 |
| embed | success | embed | Qwen/Qwen3-Embedding-8B | — | 1 | 2026-06-18 |
| promote | success | — | — | — | 1 | 2026-06-18 |
| summarize | success | llm | qwen3.6-27b-prismaquant | summ-v5 | 1 | 2026-06-26 |
| tag | success | vector_similarity | — | — | 6 | 2026-06-18 |
| verify | success | — | — | — | 1 | 2026-06-26 |
Summary generated by qwen3.6-27b-prismaquant on 2026-06-26; verification: verified.
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