When Do Drivers Abort an Overtaking Maneuver on Two-Lane Rural Roads?

Farah, Haneen · 2016 · Crossref

DOI: 10.3141/2602-03

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Summary

This study investigates the conditions under which drivers abort overtaking maneuvers on two-lane rural roads, addressing a gap in previous research that primarily focused on initial gap acceptance rather than the decision to abort an initiated pass. Aborted maneuvers pose significant safety and operational risks, yet empirical data on their characteristics and triggers remains limited. The research aims to identify the traffic, geometric, and driver-specific factors influencing these decisions to improve understanding of driver behavior and support the development of safe autonomous vehicle controllers. The methodology utilized a driving simulator experiment involving 100 participants (64 males, 36 females, aged 22–70) with at least five years of driving experience. Participants completed four scenarios each from a set of 16 designed with varying geometric designs (lane width, curve radius), traffic conditions (gaps in opposite lane, speeds of lead and opposite vehicles), and vehicle types. Detailed trajectory data was collected at 0.1-second intervals for 670 overtaking maneuvers, comprising 554 completed and 116 aborted attempts. A logistic regression model was developed using R software to predict the probability of aborting based on variables including accepted gap size, driver desired speed, lead vehicle speed and type, cumulative waiting time, road curvature, and driver demographics. The results indicate that 17.3% of overtaking attempts were aborted, suggesting drivers often misjudge initial conditions. Aborted maneuvers lasted an average of 5.11 seconds, with 85% concluding within nine seconds. Drivers typically aborted when abreast with or up to 50 meters ahead of the lead vehicle. Safety analysis revealed that over 50% of aborted maneuvers resulted in a time-to-collision of less than three seconds with oncoming traffic, and half had following gaps of less than one second from the lead vehicle, indicating high risk. The logistic regression model identified significant predictors of aborting: smaller accepted gaps in the opposite direction, lower desired driving speeds, higher speeds of the front lead vehicle, longer cumulative waiting times, higher road curvature, and specific driver age and gender profiles. Statistical tests confirmed significant differences in desired speeds, following gaps, overtaking gaps, and road curvature between completed and aborted maneuvers. The findings highlight that aborted overtaking maneuvers are frequent and hazardous, often occurring before the "point of no return." The study provides empirical evidence that driver judgment errors regarding gap adequacy are a primary cause of these events. These insights are critical for improving road safety assessments and designing overtaking assistance systems that can emulate human decision-making while maintaining safety margins. The developed predictive model offers a tool for analyzing the complex interplay of traffic and geometric factors in overtaking behavior.

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• gap acceptance
• lane changing

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• Empirical Findings: behavioral performance data