An Analysis of Drivers Most Responsible for Fatal Accidents versus a Control Sample [1976]

NHTSA · 1976 · ROSA P / United States. Department of Transportation. National Highway Traffic Safety Administration

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Summary

This 1976 report by the Boston University Traffic Accident Research Special Study Team addresses the challenge of identifying drivers at high risk for fatal highway accidents. Motivated by the need to validate earlier findings regarding drivers deemed "most responsible" for fatalities, the study sought to determine how these drivers differed from the general population. The primary research question was whether specific psychosocial, demographic, and behavioral characteristics could distinguish fatal-accident operators from non-accident drivers, thereby enabling the development of predictive models for high-risk identification. The study employed a comparative design involving two distinct samples collected in the greater Boston area. The experimental sample consisted of 267 operators judged most responsible for fatal accidents between September 1971 and February 1974. These cases were categorized into three types: Type I (operator killed, 38%), Type II (operator survived, another occupant killed, 24%), and Type III (operator struck and killed a pedestrian, 38%). The sample was also divided by alcohol involvement: 103 operators (39%) had blood alcohol concentrations ≥0.05 gm/100 ml, while 164 (61%) did not. Data were gathered through extensive interviews with multiple informants, police reports, and medical records. To establish a normative baseline, a control sample of 801 operators with no history of fatal accident responsibility was randomly selected in 1975, matched to the experimental group by sex, age, and residence. The analysis revealed significant differences between the experimental and control groups. Type I operators were typically single, Irish, high school-educated males in their thirties with histories of alcohol problems. Type II operators were younger, less educated, and had marked histories of heavy use of alcohol, marijuana, and other drugs. Type III operators resembled the general population more closely but still occupied a middle ground between the other experimental groups and controls. Alcohol-involved experimental operators exhibited the lowest educational and occupational attainment and the most significant histories of inappropriate alcohol use. Discriminant function analysis identified previous arrests for driving under the influence (DWI) and speeding, alcohol use patterns, education levels, and occupation as the most significant variables for differentiating high-risk drivers from the control group. The significance of this study lies in its development of a "Boston Predictive Formula" for identifying potentially high-risk operators from the general population. By validating that fatal-accident drivers possess distinct psychosocial and behavioral profiles compared to non-accident drivers, the research supports predictive approaches to highway safety. The findings suggest that variables such as legal infractions and substance use patterns can serve as effective indicators for pre-identifying drivers who may be candidates for fatal accidents, offering a basis for targeted countermeasures and interventions.

Key finding

Previous arrests for DWI and speeding, alcohol use patterns, and levels of education and occupation were the most significant variables differentiating drivers responsible for fatal accidents from a matched control population.

Methodology

mixed_methods

Sample size: 1068

Provenance

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Summary generated by qwen3.6-27b-prismaquant on 2026-06-10; verification: verified.

Topics

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• sex gender
• demographic disparities
• incidence prevalence
• induced exposure
• pre crash contributing factors

Information type

What kind of knowledge this paper contributes, grouped by family — independent of topic (what it is about) and method (how it was studied).

• Empirical Findings: crash risk outcomes, observational prevalence
• Methodological Resource: dataset resource