Traffic Safety Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic: Fatal Crashes in 2020–2022
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Summary
This study investigates the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on traffic safety in the United States, specifically examining fatal crashes from May 2020 through December 2022. The research was motivated by the observation that traffic fatalities surged to historic highs after an initial decline during early pandemic lockdowns, persisting even as traffic volumes returned to near pre-pandemic levels. The authors sought to determine whether this increase was attributable to pandemic-specific factors, such as reduced congestion facilitating speeding, or if it reflected broader trends and behavioral shifts. The methodology utilized data from the Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS), CDC mortality databases, and the CDC’s Social Vulnerability Index. Researchers developed Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) time-series models using pre-pandemic data from 2010–2019 to forecast expected monthly fatalities had the pandemic not occurred. These forecasts were compared against actual fatality counts to identify statistically significant deviations. The model’s accuracy was validated by forecasting 2017–2019 fatalities using 2007–2016 data, which proved highly accurate. The results indicate that 114,528 people were killed in traffic crashes during the study period, representing an excess of 16,771 fatalities (17%) compared to pre-pandemic trends. The increase was not uniform; it was most pronounced during late night and early morning hours, contradicting the hypothesis that reduced daytime congestion was the primary driver. Fatalities involving speeding, alcohol-impaired driving, and unlicensed drivers increased significantly. Notably, the surge in occupant fatalities was almost entirely among those not wearing seatbelts. The study also revealed severe disparities: Black and Hispanic victims accounted for 34% and 25% of the excess fatalities, respectively, despite comprising smaller shares of the population. Similarly, adults with no education beyond high school experienced the largest numeric increases, while counties with high social vulnerability saw nearly three times the numeric increase in fatalities compared to the least vulnerable counties. The findings suggest that while the pandemic exacerbated existing safety issues, the sustained rise in fatalities is driven by complex behavioral changes and pre-existing trends rather than traffic volume alone. For instance, pedestrian and urban arterial fatalities followed long-term upward trends independent of the pandemic. The authors conclude that addressing these issues requires holistic safety approaches, such as the Safe System framework, and targeted interventions to reduce disparities among disadvantaged populations. The study underscores that the pandemic widened existing gaps in traffic safety outcomes, highlighting the need for equitable transportation safety measures.
Key finding
From May 2020 through December 2022, U.S. traffic fatalities exceeded pre-pandemic trend forecasts by an estimated 16,771 deaths, with disproportionate increases observed among disadvantaged populations and during late-night hours.
Methodology
modeling
Provenance
The full processing record for this entry. Every stage of this paper's journey through the pipeline is logged — what ran, with which tool and model, how many attempts it took, and when it last completed. Discovered via bulk_ingest_aaa_foundation on 2026-05-23 (6 acquisition events logged).
| Stage | Outcome | Tool | Model | Prompt | Attempts | Completed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| discover | success | aaa_foundation | — | — | 2 | 2026-05-23 |
| archive | success | — | — | — | 1 | 2026-05-23 |
| extract | success | cached | — | — | 2 | 2026-06-10 |
| clean | success | — | — | — | 1 | 2026-06-01 |
| chunk | success | — | — | — | 1 | 2026-06-01 |
| embed | success | — | — | — | 1 | 2026-06-02 |
| enrich | success | — | — | — | 1 | 2026-05-23 |
| promote | success | — | — | — | 1 | 2026-05-23 |
| summarize | success | llm | qwen3.6-27b-prismaquant | summ-v5 | 3 | 2026-06-10 |
| tag | success | vector_similarity | — | — | 19 | 2026-06-11 |
| verify | success | — | — | — | 2 | 2026-06-10 |
Summary generated by qwen3.6-27b-prismaquant on 2026-06-10; verification: verified.
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- Empirical Findings: crash risk outcomes