Examination of the Traffic Safety Environment During the Second Quarter of 2020: Special Report

Wagner, Essie; Atkins, Randolph G.; Berning, Amy; Robbins, Arryn; Watson, Christine E; Anderle, Jonlee · 2020 · ROSA P / United States. National Highway Traffic Safety Administration. Office of Behavioral Safety Research

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Summary

This report by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) examines the traffic safety environment in the United States during the second quarter (Q2) of 2020, a period marked by the onset of the COVID-19 public health emergency. The study addresses a critical anomaly: despite a significant reduction in vehicle miles traveled (VMT) and total crash fatalities, the fatality rate per 100 million VMT rose sharply to 1.42, compared to 1.10 in the first quarter. This trend diverged from historical patterns observed during previous economic downturns, such as the 2008 Great Recession, where reduced travel typically correlated with lower fatality rates. The research aims to identify the behavioral and environmental factors contributing to this increased risk per mile driven. To analyze these changes, the authors synthesized data from diverse sources, including the Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS), Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) traffic volume data, National EMS Information System (NEMSIS) records, Census Bureau economic indicators, and state-level law enforcement reports. The methodology involved comparing Q2 2020 metrics against 2019 baselines and historical recession data. The study specifically investigated pre-crash factors such as unemployment, travel patterns, seat belt usage, speeding, and impaired driving. It also assessed the impact of reduced law enforcement activities and changes in public safety communications necessitated by stay-at-home orders and the need to protect first responders. The findings reveal that while total VMT dropped by approximately 16.6% in the first half of 2020, the remaining drivers exhibited higher-risk behaviors. NEMSIS data indicated a drastic increase in vehicular ejections during crashes, particularly among males, individuals aged 18–34, and those in rural areas, suggesting a decline in seat belt use. Speeding became more prevalent due to reduced traffic congestion and diminished law enforcement presence; FHWA data showed increased average speeds and greater speed variability on urban interstates and rural roads. Additionally, alcohol and drug sales data, alongside trauma center reports, indicated increased consumption of alcohol, marijuana, and opioids, correlating with higher rates of impaired driving. The report suggests that stay-at-home orders may have filtered out risk-averse drivers, leaving a smaller population of drivers with higher risk tolerance on the roads. The significance of this report lies in its identification of a unique traffic safety paradigm where reduced exposure does not guarantee improved safety outcomes. The authors conclude that the combination of risky driver behavior, reduced enforcement, and altered traffic flow created an environment conducive to higher fatality rates per mile. This challenges traditional assumptions linking economic downturns directly to improved traffic safety. The findings imply that future safety strategies must account for behavioral shifts during public health crises, emphasizing the need for targeted enforcement and communication even when traffic volumes are low. The report underscores that the demographic and psychological profiles of drivers during the pandemic differed significantly from historical norms, necessitating adaptive policy responses.

Key finding

The fatality rate per 100 million vehicle miles traveled increased to 1.42 during the second quarter of 2020, driven by higher speeds, increased ejection rates indicating lower seat belt use, and greater prevalence of alcohol and drug impairment among crash victims.

Methodology

dataset

Provenance

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Summary generated by qwen3.6-27b-prismaquant on 2026-06-10; verification: verified.

Topics

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• fatality injury trends
• incidence prevalence
• demographic disparities
• comparative international
• sex gender

Information type

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• Empirical Findings: observational prevalence, crash risk outcomes
• Methodological Resource: dataset resource