Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Travel Mode Choices and Fatal Crash Rates

Elsayed, Ahmed; Smith, Sage; Abdel-Rahim, Ahmed; Chang, Kevin · 2025 · ROSA P / University of Alaska Fairbanks. Center for Safety Equity in Transportation (CSET)

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Summary

This study investigates the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on travel mode choices and fatal crash rates within the Pacific Northwest region of the United States. Motivated by global disruptions to mobility and a paradoxical rise in U.S. traffic fatalities despite reduced vehicle miles traveled (VMT), the research aims to assess behavioral shifts in transportation, determine their effect on safety outcomes, and identify factors influencing these changes. The study specifically focuses on Rural, Isolated, Tribal, and Indigenous (RITI) communities, examining both urban and rural contexts to understand diverse socio-demographic responses. The methodology combines primary survey data with secondary crash statistics. Researchers analyzed responses from 807 individuals regarding their travel behaviors before and during the pandemic. Statistical techniques included McNemar’s test to evaluate mode shifts, logistic regression to identify influencing factors, and latent class analysis (LCA) to segment respondents into distinct behavioral clusters. Additionally, the study examined traffic safety outcomes using crash data, analyzing changes in crash frequencies, severity, and contributing factors across different road types and geographic areas. Results indicate a substantial reduction in public transportation usage, driven by health concerns and limited service capacity. Conversely, there was a notable increase in private vehicle use and active transportation modes, such as walking and cycling. Demographic variables significantly influenced these shifts; younger and lower-income individuals exhibited higher probabilities of changing travel modes compared to older or higher-income groups. LCA revealed that travel behavior responses were not uniform, identifying distinct clusters based on socio-economic conditions and pre-pandemic habits. Regarding safety, overall crash rates declined during lockdowns due to reduced VMT. However, fatality rates increased, particularly in 2021 and 2023, attributed to riskier driving behaviors like speeding on less congested roads. Crash patterns also shifted geographically, with rural crashes increasing in proportion while urban crashes slightly declined. Contributing factors such as aggressive and distracted driving rose after lockdowns, although serious and minor injury counts remained relatively stable. The findings underscore the need for flexible, adaptive transportation policies that address the safety of diverse populations. The study concludes that improving public transportation safety, expanding infrastructure for active travel, and targeting vulnerable groups are essential for building resilient systems. Furthermore, the increase in fatal crashes despite lower traffic volumes highlights the critical role of driver behavior and enforcement in post-pandemic safety strategies. These insights provide policymakers with evidence to design equitable transportation networks capable of handling future public health emergencies while maintaining safety and sustainability.

Key finding

The pandemic caused a substantial shift away from public transit toward private vehicles and active modes, while simultaneously increasing fatal crash rates despite a reduction in overall crash frequency.

Methodology

survey

Sample size: 807

Provenance

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Summary generated by qwen3.6-27b-prismaquant on 2026-06-10; verification: verified.

Topics

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• demographic disparities
• incidence prevalence
• fatality injury trends

Information type

What kind of knowledge this paper contributes, grouped by family — independent of topic (what it is about) and method (how it was studied).

• Empirical Findings: crash risk outcomes, observational prevalence