Traffic Safety Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic: Fatal Crashes Relative to Pre-Pandemic Trends, United States, May–December 2020

AAA Foundation for Traffic Safety · 2022 · AAA Foundation for Traffic Safety

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Summary

This study investigates the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on traffic safety in the United States, specifically focusing on fatal crashes from May to December 2020. While initial pandemic months saw reduced fatalities due to lockdowns, the U.S. experienced a surge in deaths later in the year, reaching the highest level in over a decade. The research aims to determine how specific crash, vehicle, and driver factors contributed to this increase compared to pre-pandemic trends. The researchers utilized data from the Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS) covering all U.S. fatal crashes from 2011 to 2020. They employed Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) models fitted to 2011–2019 data to forecast expected monthly fatal crashes for 2020 had the pandemic not occurred. These forecasts were validated using 2010–2018 data to predict 2019 outcomes. The study then compared actual 2020 data against these forecasts, analyzing differences across demographic, behavioral, and contextual variables. Results indicated that total traffic fatalities in 2020 were 2,570 (7.1%) higher than forecast. During the May–December period, fatalities exceeded forecasts by 3,083 (12.1%). This increase was not uniform; it was driven primarily by young adults aged 25–39, who accounted for nearly half of the excess deaths, and by male victims. Fatalities among drivers aged 16–39, those with invalid licenses (suspended, revoked, or expired), and those with prior driving violations increased significantly. Additionally, crashes involving older vehicles (15+ years), motorcycles, and drivers operating vehicles they did not own rose sharply. Speeding and alcohol impairment (BAC ≥0.08) were also significantly higher than expected. Conversely, fatalities among drivers aged 70+ and during morning commute hours were lower than forecast. The findings suggest that the pandemic disproportionately affected younger drivers and those with lower socioeconomic status, evidenced by the rise in crashes involving older, non-owned vehicles and unlicensed drivers. The study concludes that reversing the trend in fatal crashes requires targeted efforts to prevent driving by disqualified individuals and address the behavioral risks associated with this demographic. The authors note that mental health challenges and unequal ability to work remotely may have contributed to these patterns, highlighting the need for further research into the socioeconomic drivers of pandemic-era traffic fatalities.

Key finding

Traffic fatalities in the United States from May to December 2020 were 12.1% higher than pre-pandemic forecasts, with the increase largely driven by young adult drivers, unlicensed or impaired operators, and occupants of older, non-owned vehicles.

Methodology

modeling

Provenance

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Summary generated by qwen3.6-27b-prismaquant on 2026-06-10; verification: verified.

Topics

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• fatality injury trends
• demographic disparities
• comparative international
• incidence prevalence

Information type

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• Empirical Findings: crash risk outcomes, observational prevalence