Safety Assessment of New England Roadways During the COVID-19 Pandemic

Shirazi, Mohammadali; Ivan, John; Marshall, Ennis; Shahlaee, Amir · 2023 · ROSA P / University of Maine. Transportation Infrastructure Durability Center (TIDC)

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Summary

This study investigates the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on roadway safety in New England, specifically focusing on speeding behaviors and crash rates in Maine and Connecticut. The research addresses the paradox where traffic volumes dropped significantly during stay-at-home orders, yet fatal and severe injury crash rates increased. While initial hypotheses attributed this to reduced enforcement and increased speeding during the lockdown, data indicated that elevated crash rates persisted into 2021 and 2022, even as traffic volumes returned to pre-pandemic levels. The study aims to quantify speeding trends during and after the stay-at-home orders and determine if factors beyond speed contributed to the sustained increase in severe crashes. The researchers employed a mixed-methods approach using two primary data sources: traditional traffic count data from permanent stations in Maine and hourly probe data (speed and volume) from StreetLight Data for Maine and Connecticut. For rural roads in Maine, the team analyzed five-minute aggregated data from 23 continuous count stations across major collectors, minor arterials, and principal arterials. They utilized mixed-effect binomial regression models to assess the odds of speeding (exceeding the limit by more than 15 mph) relative to traffic counts, time variables, and pandemic phases. For urban limited-access highways, the study used probe data to estimate traffic density and Level of Service (LOS), incorporating roadway geometry and speed limits into similar binomial models. Finally, logistic regression models were developed to analyze crash occurrence (KABCO and KABC crashes) on urban and rural segments, integrating operational speed variables to isolate the impact of speed versus other factors. The results indicate a significant and persistent increase in speeding. During the April–May 2020 stay-at-home order, the odds of speeding by more than 15 mph increased by 34% on rural major collectors, 32% on minor arterials, and 51% on principal arterials in Maine compared to 2019. These elevated odds persisted one year later, with increases of 27% and 17% on major collectors and principal arterials, respectively. On urban limited-access highways, lower traffic density (LOS A or B) was associated with higher odds of speeding. During the lockdown, the odds of speeding by more than 10, 15, and 20 mph increased by 54%, 71%, and 85% in Connecticut, and by 15%, 36%, and 65% in Maine during evening peak hours. These trends remained significantly higher than pre-pandemic levels in 2021. Regarding crashes, the odds of fatal and injurious crashes on urban roadways increased by 87% during evening peak hours and 79% during off-peak hours in 2021 compared to 2018–2019. The study found that while operating speed explained some crash increases, the coefficient of variation of hourly speed was also a significant predictor, suggesting that speed variability and other factors contributed to the post-pandemic safety decline. The significance of this research lies in its demonstration that the safety impacts of the pandemic extended well beyond the initial lockdown period. By leveraging network-level probe data, the study establishes a clear link between low traffic density and increased speeding, as well as the persistence of risky driving behaviors after restrictions were lifted. The findings suggest that the elevated crash rates in 2021 and 2022 were not solely due to higher average speeds but also involved increased speed variability and potentially other behavioral shifts. This highlights the need for transportation agencies to consider long-term behavioral changes and speed management strategies in post-pandemic roadway safety planning.

Key finding

The odds of speeding by more than 15 mph increased significantly during the 2020 stay-at-home orders and remained elevated in 2021, with low traffic density and increased speed variability identified as key factors contributing to higher fatal crash rates in the post-pandemic period.

Methodology

modeling

Provenance

The full processing record for this entry. Every stage of this paper's journey through the pipeline is logged — what ran, with which tool and model, how many attempts it took, and when it last completed. Discovered via bulk_ingest_rosap on 2026-05-23 (6 acquisition events logged).

Summary generated by qwen3.6-27b-prismaquant on 2026-06-10; verification: verified.

Topics

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• incidence prevalence
• fatality injury trends
• urban rural setting
• speed choice

Information type

What kind of knowledge this paper contributes, grouped by family — independent of topic (what it is about) and method (how it was studied).

• Empirical Findings: crash risk outcomes, observational prevalence
• Methodological Resource: dataset resource