System Analysis of Alcohol Countermeasures

Moore, William S.; Imperial, Jose F.; Tunstall, Joan; Wagner, Marvin H.; Hurst, Paul M. · 1976 · ROSA P / United States. National Highway Traffic Safety Administration

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Summary

This 1976 report by General Research Corporation, commissioned by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA), addresses the urgent need to reduce alcohol-related traffic fatalities, which accounted for approximately 50% of road deaths in 1973. The study conducts a systems analysis and benefit/cost evaluation of seven potential alcohol safety countermeasures to determine their economic feasibility and guide future research funding. The countermeasures analyzed include voluntary driver actions (sober pills, self-testers), law enforcement tools (evidential roadside testers, non-cooperative breath testers), and vehicle monitoring systems (alcohol safety interlocks, continuous monitoring devices, operating time recorders). The methodology employed a benefit/cost ratio ($R = B/C$) framework, where benefits were calculated based on societal cost savings from reduced crashes, injuries, and fatalities, and costs included research, development, manufacturing, and implementation expenses. Due to a lack of real-world data, the analysis relied heavily on assumptions and empirical relationships derived from Dr. Paul Hurst’s research on Blood Alcohol Concentration (BAC) levels. Two sets of estimates were generated: an "average" (pessimistic) estimate and a "Hurst" (optimistic) estimate, the latter accounting for the disproportionately higher risk of severe injury among drivers with high BAC levels. Sensitivity analyses were performed to test the impact of key variables, such as deterrence rates and unit costs, on the overall ratios. The findings indicate that most countermeasures could be cost-effective (B/C ratios between 1.0 and 5.0) under specific conditions. The sober pill showed the highest potential (B/C 4.0–5.0) if priced at $0.25 per dose and effective at reducing impairment by 0.04–0.05 BAC. Self-testers, evidential roadside testers, and non-cooperative breath testers were projected to have B/C ratios of 1.0–2.0, contingent on unknown driver deterrence rates and strict cost limits for equipment and legal processing. Alcohol safety interlocks and continuous monitoring devices were deemed cost-effective (B/C 1.0–2.0) if they achieved at least 50% effectiveness and maintained low maintenance costs. However, the report emphasizes that these results are not definitive due to significant uncertainties regarding technological feasibility, social acceptance, and legal constraints. The significance of this study lies in its provision of a structured analytical framework for prioritizing alcohol countermeasure research. The authors conclude that while the models offer a baseline for economic potential, substantial additional research is required to validate critical parameters, particularly regarding driver deterrence and device reliability. The report recommends that NHTSA focus future efforts on developing technologies that meet the specified performance and cost thresholds and on assessing the legal and social feasibility of implementation strategies.

Key finding

The sober pill is the most cost-effective countermeasure with benefit-cost ratios of 4.0 to 5.0, while self-testers, roadside testers, interlock systems, and time recorders achieve ratios of 1.0 to 2.0 only if specific effectiveness and cost constraints are satisfied.

Methodology

modeling

Provenance

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Topics

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• dui enforcement
• alcohol detection systems
• alcohol
• drowsy as impairment

Information type

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• Applied Guidance: countermeasure evaluation
• Empirical Findings: crash risk outcomes