Naturalistic teenage driving study: Findings and lessons learned

Simons-Morton, Bruce G.; Klauer, Sheila G.; Ouimet, Marie Claude; Guo, Feng; Albert, Paul S.; Lee, Suzanne E.; Ehsani, Johnathon P.; Pradhan, Anuj K.; Dingus, Thomas A. · 2015 · openalex

DOI: 10.1016/j.jsr.2015.06.010

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Summary

This paper summarizes the findings of the Naturalistic Teenage Driving Study (NTDS), a longitudinal investigation designed to understand novice teenage driving risk, specifically crash and near-crash (CNC) rates, kinematic risky driving (KRD), speeding, and distraction. The study was motivated by the high crash rates observed among newly licensed teenagers, which are attributed to inexperience and risky behaviors. The research aimed to track changes in driving outcomes over time, identify predictors of risk, and evaluate statistical methods for analyzing such data. The study recruited 42 newly licensed teenagers (average age 16.4) and their parents in Virginia between 2006 and 2008. Participants drove instrumented vehicles equipped with a data acquisition system including GPS, accelerometers, and multiple cameras for 18 months. Data collection included continuous monitoring of driving kinematics, video coding for secondary task engagement (distraction), and periodic surveys assessing psychosocial factors. Additionally, stress responsivity was measured via cortisol levels. Statistical analyses employed Poisson distributions for count data and generalized linear mixed models to account for over-dispersion and temporal correlations. Key findings indicate that while teenage CNC rates declined over the first 6–9 months of licensure, they remained approximately 3.9 times higher than those of adult drivers throughout the 18-month period. Three distinct risk groups were identified: high-risk drivers with persistently high CNC rates, low-risk drivers with consistently low rates, and moderate-risk drivers whose rates declined significantly. Contributing factors to elevated risk included secondary task engagement, with cell phone dialing, reaching for objects, and texting showing significant odds ratios for CNC involvement. Kinematic risky driving rates were 5.08 times higher in teenagers than adults and were strong predictors of subsequent crashes. Psychosocial analysis revealed that friends’ risky behavior was the most consistent predictor of speeding, KRD, and CNC, whereas sensation seeking was only associated with speeding. Notably, teenagers with a blunted stress response (low cortisol reactivity) exhibited higher CNC rates and less improvement over time compared to those with normal stress responsivity. The significance of these findings lies in the identification of specific, modifiable risk factors that go beyond simple inexperience. The data suggest that high novice risk is driven by a combination of inexperience and specific risky behaviors, particularly kinematic risky driving and distraction. The study highlights the importance of social norms, indicating that peer influence is a stronger predictor of risk than individual personality traits. These results support the development of graduated driver licensing policies and prevention efforts that target kinematic risky driving, secondary task engagement, and risky social norms. Furthermore, the paper contributes to methodological advancements in naturalistic driving research by demonstrating the utility of latent class models and mixed-effects regression for analyzing longitudinal driving data with high variability.

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Topics

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• novice drivers
• passenger effects
• parental management
• sex gender
• learner drivers
• graduated licensing

Information type

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• Empirical Findings: observational prevalence, crash risk outcomes
• Methodological Resource: dataset resource